The G7 countries agreed on a concerted intervention in the exchange market to counter the outbreak of the Japanese currency. An announcement immediately greeted by a weaker yen and increased the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The yen is now at its highest level in 15 years against the dollar
Looked at the bedside of Japan, the central bankers of the G7 have decided on the night of Thursday to Friday to take action "concerted" on the foreign exchange market to contain soaring yen's history that could complicate the challenge of reconstruction after earthquake.
This decision, made during a conference call convened by France, which currently chairs the group of most industrialized countries of the world, is a first since 2000, said the French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde."The Bank of Japan has already begun to intervene in markets, other central banks will also be involved," she said.
The announcement had an immediate effect: the dollar has fallen over 80 yen in Tokyo Friday, the day after a record at 76.36 yen. For its part, the Nikkei index of Tokyo Stock Exchange gained 2.72% at the close, leaving in its wake other Asian bourses.The decline of the yen should prevent that Japanese exporters are not too adversely affected by a currency too strong.
"In response to recent movements in the yen exchange rate associated with tragic events in Japan and at the request of Japanese authorities, the authorities of the United States, Great Britain, Canada and the European Central Bank will join the Japan, March 18, 2011 (Friday, Ed), for a concerted intervention in foreign exchange markets ", the G7 said in a statement issued by France.
"Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse consequences for economic and financial stability," added the finance ministers and central bank governors, promising to continue to "cooperate if necessary."
The release of central bankers from Germany, Canada, United States, France, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom, however, evokes no other type of financial assistance to Tokyo.
Japanese officials have "informed" counterparts "the answer given by economic and financial authorities," state governors and ministers, who expressed their "willingness to provide all necessary cooperation" and their "confidence in the soundness of the Japanese economy and its financial sector ".
The economic impact of the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March is still difficult to assess. Economists totaled at least $ 100 billion, representing 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) of Japan as the cost of the earthquake in Kobe in 1995. However, many experts believe that the devastation could represent around 3% of GDP.
This shock then, many economists believe that Japan is able to absorb it. "The Japanese economy will be significantly affected in the short term to rebound with ample measures of monetary and fiscal stimulus," summed up in a note Axa IM, while the Bank of Japan has injected into the economy billions of 36,000 yen (324 billion) since Monday.
Much will depend, in fact, the seriousness of the nuclear accident in Fukushima. More uncertainty "will be significant and long to dissipate, as the recovery of the activity will move away in time," said Philippe Waechter, Natixis, highlighting the risks of a sustainable electricity supply limited, when many Companies are already stopped.
About the consequences for global growth, already fragile, opinions are divided.The crisis could still increases more energy prices, while oil burns already – Moscow has even predicted $ 200 a barrel.
The other threat is a massive repatriation, for the purposes of reconstruction funds invested by the Japanese abroad. Many investors already expect such a movement, which has dramatically raised the yen to its highest level against the dollar since the Second World War. However, Japan is behind China and Germany, the third net exporter of capital, according to Natixis.
Tokyo is also one of the largest holders of foreign debt of U.S. and euro area. A large sale of bonds of these states lead to a rise in interest rates which ultimately could hamper the global recovery.