The steady rise of the euro against the greenback on track to $ 1.50 revives investors' fears about the effects this might have on the results of European exporters.
This increase could also put an end to the correlation in recent weeks between the single currency and the euro zone equities.
The titles of aerospace companies and other companies producing in the euro area and exporting to the United States are most vulnerable to this situation, while exporters are heavily exposed to emerging countries, whose currency also rose against the dollar, should be less affected.
Over the last seven weeks, European equities, which have withstood the recent market shocks (nuclear crisis in Japan, events in the Arab world, rescue of Portugal and expectations of a debt restructuring Greek) have yet progressed alongside the euro.
However, with the highest 17 months of the euro hit 1.4903 dollars on Monday (+15% since January against the greenback), European stocks are approaching the "pain threshold" at which analysts and companies must adjust their earnings forecasts.
"(The current level of the euro / dollar) is starting to be a problem.We should start to see in future issues of companies and their prospects for the second half, "said Frederic Dodard, director of management multi-asset class for EMEA at State Street Global Advisors.
"ON FATE OF THE COMFORT ZONE"
Last year, European markets were affected by the debt crisis of the euro area but rebounded in the wake of the euro during periods of heightened appetite for risk, a number of foreign investors using strong positive correlation between single currency and the shares of the region as signals to buy and sell orders for stocks.
In this case, the correlation of 30 days between the euro and pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.61 last week, against an average of 20 years to -0.1, but it seems close to overturning.
"Over $ 1.50, we leave the comfort zone," said a delay based in Paris.
"That does not mean that the entire market will be bearish, but people will start to become reluctant to buy securities of exporting groups, at least until we know the impact (in the euro -dollar) on the results. "
Philippe Nahum, CEO of B * Capital, said that the rising euro could take companies off guard and some of them might not have covered an assessment against the single currency.
"All values are not exposed equally to the dollar. European companies that produce and sell in euro dollars are penalized. They lose competitiveness," he says."(But) companies that produce outside the euro area and sell in the eurozone are winning."
If the euro continues to appreciate against the dollar, the market will avoid exporting European values, such as EADS, and especially businesses that have offshored some in the dollar zone, "warns Philip Nahum.
In fact, EADS, whose executive chairman Louis Welsh said that each increase of 10 cents of the euro against the dollar cost the group its one billion euros in terms of annual operating profit, lost 3.5% Last week the stock market because of the increase in single currency.
German companies are less exposed to this problem, managers emphasize, as exports take place instead in the German sector of capital goods to emerging markets. Yet their currency against the dollar also rose.