After a very dynamic first quarter, the French economy is expected to mark time before rebounding and reaching 2.1% over the year, exceeding the government's objective, according to INSEE. French managers come to the business district of La Défense
French growth should undergo a brake in the second quarter before rebounding and reaching 2.1% over the year, slightly more than the government's objective, according to new estimates published by INSEE on Thursday. After a very dynamic first quarter in which gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1%, the French economy would have stalled, says the National Institute of Statistics in its first forecast for the whole of the 2011.
As in other advanced economies, France has experienced the full number of shocks, such as rising commodity prices, the consequences of the earthquake in Japan, or more restrictive economic policies. However, these shocks will be "temporary" said Sandrine Duchêne, head of the economic situation of INSEE. And factors should slow fade in the second half.
After an expected growth of only 0.2% in the second quarter, activity should then bounce back with an expected GDP growth of 0.5% during the last two quarters of the year. Over the whole of 2011, growth would reach 2.1%, slightly higher than the official government forecast (2%).
This performance is consistent with the euro area average. As usual, Germany will remain the locomotive of the region, INSEE provides a 3.7% growth for the country in 2011.Conversely, Spain (+0.7%) and Italy (+0.8%) will be left behind.
Unemployment folds
Over the period, the labor market should continue to improve in France, total employment grew more strongly than in 2010. Unemployment, which stood at 9.2% of the workforce in the first quarter, fell back slightly by the end of the year to 9%.
Household consumption, even in the first quarter supported by a "drag effect" of scrapping, related to the timely delivery of vehicles ordered in late 2010, should fall back sharply in the second quarter, "backlash". She then rebound in the second half, however, at a rate slightly lower than before the crisis, according to Insee.
Traditional engine of French growth, consumption would increase by 1.2% over the year, after rising 1.3% in 2010.Business investment will remain dynamic, while the trade would have a broadly neutral impact on growth.
Household income would be supported by rising employment and wages. The decision to pay a premium to employees in companies distributing dividends is expected to contribute to this increase, according to INSEE.
Inflation of 2.2% trim on the purchasing power
But this acceleration will be partially eroded by the pursuit of expected inflation. To INSEE, the rise in food prices, already substantially since March, is expected to continue in effect until December. On average, inflation should be 2.2% throughout this year, a level higher than the 1.8% forecast by the government.
Thus, household disposable income, which should accelerate in 2011 (+3.3% after +2.0%), would contreblancé by higher inflation.Overall, the purchasing power of households rise by only slightly faster in 2011 than in 2010 (1% after +0.8%).
A greater than expected weakness in the U.S. economy or boost pressure on sovereign debt, however, could darken the picture, warns INSEE. Conversely, if the French households decide to save less this year, would benefit just the consumer, so to growth.