Business & Financial News

The stock markets in the euro area settle in the green Thursday at midday, driven by financial stocks boosted by a voting majority in the margin of the German Parliament the reform of financial stability in Europe.

However, progress is limited. If the ratification of strengthening the powers of EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund) is acquired in Germany, this vote does not dispel the differences that oppose European leaders on how to deal effectively with the debt crisis in the euro area, report professionals.

Around 12:20, the CAC 40 index, which made the yo-yo in early trading, rises above 3000 points.The index gained 0.84% ​​to 3020.70 points and 3033.38 and 2974.98 changes between.

The euro also benefits the vote in the Bundestag and is trading around 1.3642 dollars against 1.3536 late Wednesday.

In Paris, BNP Paribas (6.27%), Societe Generale (4.67%) and Credit Agricole (3.75%) are leading the CAC 40 increases as the Stoxx Banks (+ 1.92%) is the leading sector gains in Europe.

L'Oreal (-1.48%) shows the largest drop in the Paris index, weighed down by the statements of Reuters Clarins boss who said he is worried about the economy in Europe this year and next year .

"These comments (Clarins) are negative for L'Oreal, which makes 40% of its sales in Europe," said one trader.

Exchanges of Frankfurt and Milan won respectively 0.57% and 1.28%.EuroStoxx 50 index of the core values ​​of the euro area is 0.96%. Outside the eurozone, London yields 0.31%

"We continue to believe that the news of recent days are not particularly encouraging. We are seeing some convergence between the political leaders of the EMU (Economic and Monetary Union)," say the strategists rate of Societe Generale in their daily note .

The performance of the German government bond (Bund) is relaxed to 10 years by 1.0 basis points to 1.97%.

The favorite candidate in the primary socialist believes that the rising tax burden is unavoidable. The effort must be "shared", he says. François Hollande at a rally in Rennes on 27 september 2011.

François Hollande, the favorite in the polls primary PS, said Tuesday that it would "necessarily" increase the tax burden on Tuesday at a meeting in Rennes, defending his plan to re-create 60,000 jobs in education evening mobilization teacher. "There will necessarily be a rising tax burden," said the elected Corrèze to 2,000 people, noting that taxes, fees and expenses had increased by Nicolas Sarkozy (44% against 43% of GDP according to him) while the head of state promised to reduce the "four points" in 2007.

"If this effort is not shared, there will be no recovery," he added.He lampooned the tax on soft drinks recently proposed by the government: "Why sugar? Why not salt? And the salt tax would be reinvented." The evening of a day of action in education, Francois Hollande has again defended his plan to re-create 60,000 jobs in education in five years: "I prefer a plan for education (to) a plan for prisons "he said, referring to the recent announcement by the Head of State to create 30,000 prison places.

Yves Saint Laurent (PPR) has made a firm denial Monday to rumors of his replacement designer Stefano Pilati.

"Yves Saint Laurent denies and considers unsubstantiated rumors about the current direction of the creation of the house.Stefano Pilati continues to dedicate his talent and energy to Yves Saint Laurent and the parade to come, "the fashion house said in a statement.

In an article on fashion ready-to-wear in Milan, the Herald Tribune Monday spoke of the arrival of Raf Simons, current artistic director of Jil Sander, the head of the establishment of the French label.

Rumors continue to go well on the eve of Paris Fashion Week ready-to-wear spring-summer 2012.

Marc Jacobs (Louis Vuitton, LVMH) seems expected to succeed John Galliano at Dior, which has so far not confirmed.

François Fillon has aroused the wrath of unions by proposing to move towards a common retirement age between the two countries, without elaborating. But the French and German are not based on the same criteria.

The German model inspires François Fillon. In a speech on the "convergence" tax, the prime minister even tried to bring the debate in the field of pensions. But considering that it was necessary to "move towards a common retirement age" with the neighbor across the Rhine, it has sparked an outcry, just months after the entry into force of reform swept-fought.Since then, unions, employers' policies and comment on his remarks, not always understand what the Prime Minister referred.

If François Fillon spoke of the legal age …

His little phrase is especially feared the unions and the opposition a further decline in the minimum legal age of retirement, ie the age at which an insured can collect his pension. And it has nothing to do with the threshold of 65 or 67 years in force in Germany.It is "easy to talk about such retirement to 67 years in Germany and to face the French 60 years, omitting the one hand, remember that this is for Germany the retirement age full-rate and for France the legal age of cessation of activity, "lamented last year already economist Julia Cage, in a study of the Jean Jaures.

For the first, from 60 to 62 years by 2018 with the last pension reform, is the legal age of retirement. But for a full pension, you also claim a number of years of contributions, 40 and 3 months now. If it did not, it undergoes a discount at least 65 years of waiting-line gradually lengthened to 67 years in 2023 – the legal age which guarantees the full rate, regardless of the contribution period.The French system is indeed one of the few to impose a double bind, age and minimum insurance.

In Germany, for against, it is primarily the first which is taken into account. Employees receive their full pension at age 65 on the sole condition of having contributed five years. From 2012, this threshold will be gradually decreased by one, then two months per year to reach 67 in 2029, according to the reform adopted in 2007.

If he spoke of the age at full rate …

And so Francois Fillon was actually referring to a convergence of ages starting at the full rate, then the situations in France and Germany do not differ that much. In Germany, it will reach 67 years that by 2028. In France, it will be 67 years from 1 January 2023, for the generations born after 1956.The difference is that the French will have all their quarters from before, while the Germans, with some exceptions, can not do with discount.

The German decision to delay the age of two years starting at the full rate is also one reason: the German population is aging while the birthrate falls. The fertility rate is only 1.3 children per woman, against 2 in France, where the birthrate is one of the most dynamic in Europe. The passage of 67 years accompanied by an appeal also more massive premium pension and a decrease in the level of pensions. Between 2007 and 2009, the poverty rate in over 65 rose from 10.5 to 12.1%.

In Germany, the decline in the age of retirement has therefore not been smooth.Very hostile to reform, the unions pointed out that in a crisis, extend the service period is most likely to create unemployment. Especially since the "seniors" are often left behind when the job market is scarce. In 2009, their participation rate was only 56.2% across the Rhine. In France it was less than 39%.

The pessimistic comments by the Fed on the U.S. economy were right the last hopes of the market. Paris loses about 5% as other European markets, the euro and oil fall as well.

Financial markets no longer know where to turn. They awaited the Fed's effective measures to stimulate activity, they have mostly kept very pessimistic comments on the U.S. economy. And as concerns over the health of European banks are still there, the world's stock markets have performed a new dive on Thursday.

After opening sharply lower, European stock markets accentuated their losses by mid-afternoon. The Paris Bourse and yielded 4.57%, Frankfurt 3.77%, 4.70% London, Milan and Madrid 3.70% 4.40%. At the opening of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones lost 1.45% and the Nasdaq 2.85%..

Bank stocks, especially French, were the first victims of this new access of depression. Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and Natixis were down more than 7%. BNP Paribas, some limited damage to -3.3%. Alarmist comments by an officer of the influential American fund Pimco, saying that French banks could tip the whole of Europe into recession, came to power concerns.

Equity markets are not the only ones suffering. Direct result of growth at half mast, and thus reduced demand, oil prices plunged more than 5% in New York, returning to their lowest levels in a month. A barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery traded at 80.91 dollars.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro has meanwhile fallen below $ 1.35. It especially touched its lowest level for ten years against the yen.

Main accused of helping the new blues, the U.S. central bank. "The Fed, instead of reassuring the markets, instead encouraged the weak operators and increased their aversion to assets considered risky," explained Jane Foley, analyst at Rabobank.

As expected, it has announced the launch of Operation Twist, which will be for sale by the end of June 2012 for $ 400 billion of treasury bills in order to redeem an equivalent amount with a longer maturity. The stated objective is to lower interest rates over time. Problem, the effectiveness of the measure is highly controversial because these rates are already low. Its impact on business would not be obvious.

Unconvincing in action, the Fed, however, impressed the market by the extent of his pessimism on the U.S. economy, citing the "continuing weakness" of the labor market and "significant risks" associated with "tensions global financial markets. " Expected as the messiah, Bern Bernanke, the head of the U.S. central bank has disappointed. The Fed "does not have the tools to miraculously revive economic growth," could only observe Nigel Gault, the firm IHS Global Insight.

Several indicators have confirmed the sluggishness of activity across the Atlantic, like the new jobless claims last week to 423,000, down but higher than expected (418,000). For its part, the Conference Board's composite index came out up 0.3% in August, but slowed down, which is a sign of increased risks to growth.The U.S. treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, has found himself in Washington that the slow economic growth was a challenge "bigger" than the debt that states the world should give priority to support growth.

As if this were not enough, the bad news continued to accumulate on the side of the euro area. The private sector activity there is in fact contracted in September for the first time in over two years, according to a first estimate of the firm Markit PMI. The activity slows and approaches the stagnation in Germany and France, the two largest economies in the region, the source said. Italy, whose financial markets worried, revised sharply downward its growth forecasts, reduced to 0.7% for 2011, 0.6% in 2012 and 0.9% in 2013.Rome assured that the austerity plan passed last week was enough to balance the budget by 2013. But the bond market, the Italian securities suffered, with a standard rate record deal with German titles, safe havens in which investors have rushed. The performance of the German Bund and 10-year fell to its lowest ever observed in 1.665%.

The debate continues in Europe on the recapitalization of banks, following the call to use the IMF's European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) to recapitalize the most exposed to the debt crisis. The IMF estimates the potential losses in the sector to 200 billion euros. Echoing the words of his colleague in charge of Competition, Joaquin Almunia, European Commissioner Michel Barnier to Financial Services found that 25 of them need to be recapitalized.

The three main French banks have made a spectacular recovery on the stock market Wednesday afternoon, unconfirmed rumors recapitalization that gave a boost to their titles.

As they signed in mid-day the worst stock market performance of European banking sector, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale took up to 3:45 p.m., respectively, 1.95%, 0.52% and 0.79% while the European banking index fell by 0.13%.

"We feel that the market is abuzz with rumors and there is nothing really solid.I think the market will come back (back), "said one trader told Reuters.

A spokeswoman for BNP Paribas has denied rumors the new recapitalization.

"In the words of (the president) Michel Pébereau yesterday we currently have no need to be recapitalized," she said, noting that his bank had just signed one of his best performances in history in terms of results .

French banks were attacked in the morning, some operators are worrying about their access to liquidity despite the increase in denials.

The climate has become particularly burdensome for banks in recent weeks hexagonal where announcements of measures to promote the return of market confidence have been ineffective.

The German group Siemens has withdrawn funds early July of Société Générale as a result of under-performance of an investment, but the news was interpreted by some as indicative of the financial health of the bank.

Similarly, the decision by Standard & Poor's to lower the sovereign rating of Italy, although it was expected by the markets, also helped fuel the fears of contagion from the crisis of debt in the euro area.

While European politicians opposing the idea of ​​issuing Eurobonds to respond to the crisis of sovereign debt, China could affect their development.

Europe is the first export market of China, which has clearly said he was in his interest to avoid a financial collapse that could cause a global recession.

China also wants to diversify its foreign reserves to reduce the share of U.S. government bonds, and did not wait for the deterioration in the sovereign rating of the United States last month to start doing.

"European countries are facing problems of sovereign debt.We have said countless times that China wants to give a hand and we will continue to invest (in Europe), "said Premier Wen Jiabao during the 'Summer Davos Forum' week last in the Chinese city of Dalian.

But he also said that the major developed economies were healthier fiscal position and urged Europe to make a reciprocal gesture by granting China the status of market economy.

Europeans have so far been reluctant to make this concession, given the exchange rate regime of the yuan, state control of Chinese industry and commercial litigation, intellectual property, for example.

Upon entry to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, China agreed to a covenant which provided that she would not have the status of market economy in the world before 2016.Beijing has long called for this status to be granted in advance, as that would provide better protection against anti-dumping duties including the EU.

"A crisis is an opportunity"

"Europeans have not been sufficiently sensitive to the needs of China," said Etienne Reuter, a consultant who was representing the EU in Hong Kong and Japan.

China also wants the EU to lift an arms embargo imposed in 1989 after the crushing of the "Beijing Spring".

Privately, EU officials who manage the debt crisis remember that China is one of the few large foreign investors continue to buy bonds of countries in the euro area in the secondary market.

China thinks it also has also taken a large share of bonds rated triple-A issued by the European Financial Stability (EFSF) to support Greece, Ireland and Portugal as part of programs helps set up by the EU and the International Monetary Fund.

For Beijing, the problem is rather that there is not enough paper issues rated triple A European response to the request.Yields on German government bonds and UK safe haven to which have turned many investors are thus fell below the rate of inflation.

"It is in the interest of China that the euro area is stable with the creation of Euro-bonds, but China may have an impact on the decision of the European countries I doubt," said however Xu Bei, a Chinese economist who works in Paris for the French bank Natixis investment.

"In the Chinese mentality, a crisis is always an opportunity.The Chinese word for crisis has two characters: one meaning danger, the other opportunity, "says she.

In the short term, she says, it would make sense for China to buy the Italian Treasury bonds, which are active in Europe among the more volume and more liquid while providing an attractive return "if Excluding a scenario of extreme crisis. "

SECURE INVESTMENT

There is clearly a debate within the Chinese leadership on the pros and cons of going to the assistance of Europe.

Forum in Dalian last week, an adviser to the Chinese central bank, Daokui Li said that China should refrain from buying large volumes of European bonds.

In its edition for abroad, the People's Daily, for its part says that China should not act alone but work with other creditors, including the IMF, and ask that the euro area investment guarantees.

"Faced with latent systemic risk for European debt, China should both take the role of responsible great power but must also make security a prerequisite for an investment," said an editorial in Xiangyang Li, researcher international relations at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

According to Etienne Reuter, Wen Jiabao wants to open China further and support the conservative voice of Europe, but among the other leaders argue that Beijing must be careful not to get too involved in other countries.

Chinese public opinion, at least as reflected by the blogs on the internet, look for caution on the issue of investment in Europe is for its part Bei Xu.

As for David Bowers, the financial advisory firm Absolute Strategy Research, the Committee is unlikely that China will take strategic initiatives to scale before the change of the management team in 2012, which should be reflected in particular by replacing Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao.

"The people that the Chinese are dealing, it is the Germans.Triple A is a nation like China, mercantile like China, and the Chinese could help them avoid making the taxpayers bear the German "a heavy burden, he said.

China is becoming the next two years the largest trading partner of Germany instead of France, noted David Bowers.

"They (the Chinese) will have to wait until Germany is clearer about what she wants in Europe," he said.

The Greek finance minister ruled out Saturday the event of imminent bankruptcy of public accounts.

"The commentary and analysis about an imminent default or bankruptcy of Greece are not only ridiculous but irresponsible," said Evangelos Venizelos said in a statement.

"All weekend, Greece (…) is the subject of organized attacks by speculators on international markets," he lamented, ensuring also that the cancellation of the visit of Prime Minister George Papandreou United States did not meet any economic emergency.

The head of government, which was scheduled to visit the headquarters of the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund, made a stopover in London when he decided to turn back after a meeting with his finance minister.

"The prime minister felt he should not miss. He wanted to ensure that all commitments would be required of Greece," said Reuters spokesman for the government.

Ways to encourage sustainable economic recovery are dwindling, the executive director warned Friday the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde.

In an article published in the German daily Handelsblatt, the Commission considers that there are still shortcomings in the regulation of the financial system and that "indecision and dysfunctional policies" threaten to undermine the recovery in developed economies.

"I think there is a path to sustainable recovery, even if this path is narrower than before and continues to shrink," writes Christine Lagarde.

The former French Minister of Economy Again, the weak balance sheets posted by the banks and the U.S. are fueling a crisis of credibility which in turn undermines growth.

"This vicious cycle is gaining momentum and has been aggravated by political indecision and failure," she writes, calling for international solutions to resolve the debt crisis and systemic risks.

Moody's Investors Service downgraded Wednesday Societe Generale and Credit Agricole up a notch, and extended monitoring of BNP Paribas, adding that any downgrading of the rating on BNP would probably also limited to one notch.

The rating agency had placed the banks under review with negative implications on June 15, citing their exposure to Greece.

Experts had said that the notes were ripe for a downgrade due to higher borrowing costs in the context of sovereign debt crisis of several of the euro area.

In a context of deterioration of refinancing, Moody's said its concerns about the structural difficulties of the profiles of liquidity and financing banks had intensified.

For Credit Agricole, Moody's reduced the rating of the long-term debt and deposits to Aa2 from Aa1, a one notch downgrade and downgraded the Bank Financial Strength Rating (BFSR) to the next level too, C + to C.

Regarding Societe Generale, Moody's Aa2 to Aa3 reduced from the note of the long-term debt and deposits, with a negative outlook.The agency estimates that the impact of monitoring the Bank Financial Strength Rating (BFSR) will be limited to a one notch downgrade.

Moody's believes, however, that Societe Generale has a level of capital sufficient to absorb potential losses it is likely to record its holdings on Greek government bonds.

It added that Societe Generale will remain capitalized at a level consistent with its BFSR, even if the quality of the signature of the Ireland and Portugal were to deteriorate further.

Societe Generale issued a statement following the announcement by Moody's.The bank says it has demonstrated its ability to effectively manage the current situation in the debt crisis in Greece and has taken appropriate measures to strengthen its profile of refinancing.

Societe Generale said Monday it would conduct asset sales and cost reductions designed to release four billion euros in additional capital by 2013.

FRENCH BANKS "KEEP NOTES OF VERY GOOD"

For BNP Paribas, Moody's believes that the first French bank has a level of profitability and capital sufficient to absorb potential losses it may suffer over time due to its exposure to Greece, Portugal and the Ireland.

Moody's continues its review with negative implications for long-term rating and deposits – currently Aa2 – BNP Paribas, but considered unlikely that this under surveillance results in a downgrade of more than one notch.

BNP Paribas said Wednesday it would reduce the size of its balance sheet of about 10% by the end of 2012 and expects to achieve a capital adequacy ratio of 9% under the new banking regulations of Basel III on 1 January 2013.

Following the announcements by Moody's, the French government has reaffirmed the "strong" French banks.

"French banks have withstood stress tests that were very demanding few weeks ago," said Valerie Pécresse, budget minister and spokesman of the government after the cabinet meeting.

"There is no funding problem, or issue credit or liquidity problem for French banks," she said.

French banks are "very strong and keep very good notes," she said.

Radio Europe 1, President of the Financial Markets Authority (AMF) Jean-Pierre Jouyet noted that the cuts of note occurred already anticipated by the market.

On RTL, the governor of the Banque de France Christian Noyer, for its part felt that the situation of French banks was unlikely to deteriorate further after the decision by Moody's.

At the Paris stock exchange, securities of the three banks have opened down sharply after the announcements by Moody's, but have rapidly reduced or erased their losses, with the overall market, thanks to remarks by the President of the European Commission suggesting a forthcoming proposal for the introduction of euro bonds.

French banks are the institutions most exposed to Greece, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

Earlier this afternoon, the action Societe Generale lost 2.8% and 1.6% gave the BNP.But Crédit Agricole clinching 2%.

Citigroup cut its price targets on French banks.