Bad news on the economic front: the activity in the services sector began to turn to contract and morale deteriorates entrepreneur. The recovery will be anemic. French executives come to the business district of La Defense
The significant recovery announced by Nicolas Sarkozy is struggling to emerge. Instead, the slump continues, whether in industry or in services. The private sector activity has indeed registered the largest decline since 6 months, according to a first estimate of the PMI index released Monday by the firm Markit. The index "flash" composite of overall activity in France has contracted from 48.7 points in March to 46.8 points in April, below the 50 points that mark a contraction in activity. This decline reflects a sharp deterioration in performance of the services sector, whose activity fell for the first time in five months.
The French industrial morale has degraded him in April compared with the previous month, according to the business survey released Monday by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE). The composite indicator of business climate in the industry fell 95 points, against 98 in March and remains below its long-term average set at 100 points.
"Here we have throughout the disappointing figures, downright disappointing side of the PMI surveys," summed Baudchon Helena, economist at BNP Paribas of France. Details of the survey by INSEE in March, which marked a rebound of industrial morale, "let hope for a continued recovery," said she. "I expected better than this: the confirmation of a rebound in confidence of business leaders," adds his colleague Societe Generale, Michael Martinez.
The overall indicator of business climate in France, INSEE calculated from the responses of CEOs of major industries, is itself almost unchanged in April, to 95 points, with a decline in the building, an increase in retail trade and a stable indicator in services.
An anemic recovery
"In total, still manages to defend the idea that the French economy is now rebounding from a low point that has been the fourth quarter and first quarter. But the strength of this rebound is very very low, "says Mr. Martinez, who expects a decline of 0.1% of GDP in the first quarter, followed by an increase of 0.1% in the second.
According to Jack Kennedy, the firm Markit economist, "the second quarter of 2012 will be difficult for the French economy, the service activity in April showing a decline in concern while a decline in manufacturing persists." He perceives a "wait and widespread household as businesses at the approach of the presidential election".
An argument that refutes Ms. Baudchon, for whom "the external economic and financial environment always difficult is a good explanation of the new shift in the PMI surveys in France and Germany".
Sector by sector in the industry, the survey by INSEE mask disparities and it appears that the decline is mainly due to the vehicle with the past activity "would have contracted sharply" and metallurgy.
A table overshadowed by the automobile?
The overall order books and foreign French carmakers are down sharply while that "given the personal perspectives of production, the activity could fall further in coming months," said INSEE.
"Outside the car, which suffers from the end of certain tax provisions and the European context with overproduction on a European scale, we nevertheless confirmed that production recovered slightly and the personal perspectives of production are well oriented ", says Mr. Martinez.