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The amount of mortgage loans fell by nearly 26% over a year and nearly 50% compared to December. A real "blow". http://www.flickr.com/photos/gcattiaux/

The amount of loans granted by banks recorded a very sharp decline in January, falling 25.7% over the corresponding month of 2011, according to a study by the Housing Credit / CSA published Monday. "The year 2012 did not start very well. In a sluggish economy, the backlash movement anticipation of the end of 2011 is significant," notes the study.

On a monthly basis, the collapse is indeed brutal: -49.4% between December 2011 and January 2012 (after already falling by 34.1% between December 2010 and January 2011). "It's a blow. The fall is comparable to 2009, when the subprime crisis + + U.S., "said Michel Mouillart for AFP, professor of economics at the University of Paris West and industry expert

. For Mr.

Mouillart two decisions specific to the sector in addition to "concerns about rising unemployment, purchasing power and the unfavorable economic outlook". "First of all the strong decrease in the rate (from 22% to 13%) of the tax benefit for investors buying a new home and, in addition, the removal of zero-interest loan (PTZ) for buyers of older homes, "said M . Mouillart

. For the full year 2012, loans granted banks should amount to only 130 billion euros, a drop of almost 20% compared to 2011 (160 billion), far from the high of 2007 (170.2 billion), said Mr. Mouillart. The reversal came after an explosion of these funds since the beginning of the century who had contributed to buoyant property market in France: 70.8 billion in 2001, 87.3 in 2003, 143.7 in 2005 and 170, 2 in 2007.

Interest rates on mortgages continued to rise in January 2012 and have averaged 3.97% against 3.94% in December 2011 and 3.86% in November, a jump of more than 70 points base compared to the lowest level since 1945 (3.25% on average) reached in November 2010, according to Credit Housing.

One of the first things you should look for in a payday lender is the exact amount they charge for each value of payday advance loan they offer. For example, some faxless payday loans direct lenders will charge a fee based on the duration of the loan whereas others may charge over a standard 30 day period.

The Chinese government will send next year a delegation of Chinese investors in Europe to acquire companies. Nicolas Sarkozy and Hu Jintao in Beijing, April 28, 2010. French President visited China for the inauguration of the Expo.

The Chinese government will send next year a delegation of Chinese investors in Europe to "buy European companies," said Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming, quoted Tuesday by the newspaper Global Times. "China wants to invest its large trade surplus and will not hold billions of dollars that depreciate," said Chen Deming Monday at a conference in Beijing."We are prepared to further open our market, for example the financial sector, but other savings should in turn be more open to our place," he said, always cited by the Global Times.

The paper does not specify the countries that the Chinese delegation will visit, or the composition of the delegation, or the amount or nature of such acquisitions. China holds huge reserves, which exceeded the end of September 3200 billion. She had invested the same date of $ 1.148 billion in U.S. Treasury bills while according to experts, it holds more than 550 billion sovereign debt of European countries.

European stock markets have reduced their initial losses Thursday mid-morning, investors hope that Greece renounces its proposed referendum on the European aid plan for the country while Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy launched an ultimatum Wednesday night Athens ordered to implement the overall European level or risk not receiving any help.

At 10:31, the CAC 40 index yields 0.12% after briefly gained 0.3%. The benchmark index of the Paris lost up to 2.6% in early trade.

The London Stock Exchange gained 0.05%, while Frankfurt was down 0.25% and pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index drops 0.43%.

The agreement snatched in the night between Wednesday and Thursday by leaders of the euro area has temporarily turned off the fire that threatened the single currency but many risks still on the Greek debt restructuring and strengthening of the support fund the euro.

After more than ten hours of the summit, the Heads of State and Government of the single currency agreed with banks to reduce by 100 billion euros Greek debt and endorsed a complex mechanism to bring the firepower the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) to 1,000 billion.

European markets jumped and reached their highest level in three months while the euro was appreciating at more than $ 1.40, a value that had not crossed since early September.

But if this complex agreement among the most ambitious concluded since the bursting of the debt crisis in Greece in late 2009, it is nonetheless flawed, full of question marks and carries significant risks on its realization.

The bankers must first confirm their voluntary commitment to participate in the new bailout of Greece – a process that was long winded in the previous program.

Countries in the euro area should then agree on a series of far from trivial details in the implementation of the new EFSF, as the participation of international investors to it.

"I think the main risk would be to wait too long the implementation of these agreements," warned Thursday Ewald Nowotny, a member of the European Central Bank.

"Speed ​​is essential in this case," he told Austrian radio ORF.

GREEK RESTRUCTURING

Three months ago, European leaders had already reached agreement on a major debt reduction Greek involving private creditors, but the delays in implementing the plan and its lack of ambition have quickly rendered inoperative, at least in the eyes of the markets.

Decisions taken at dawn Thursday, finally attacking head-on questions of Greek debt and contagion of the crisis to larger countries such as Italy, Spain or France, are expected to avoid the euro area to repeat the same mistakes.

For Greece, it is expected that the debt be reduced from more than 160% of GDP to 120% in 2020, a level considered sustainable by the European authorities.

To do this, the governments of the euro area will set the table 130 billion euros in loans and guarantees, while private creditors will remove 100 billion from 210 billion euros of Greek securities they hold.

This voluntary contribution, expected to be received by the end of the year will amount to a waiver of 50%, said Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, who had to meet in person with representatives of banks and weigh their weight to force the decision.

The Director General of the Institute of International Finance (IIF) Charles Dallara, who represented the banks in the negotiation, welcomed the agreement, which revises the plan of July 21, in which the private sector was engaged only up to 50 billion euros.

As expected, the leaders of twenty-seven have also endorsed the plan to recapitalize banks to the tune of 106 billion euros by June 30, 2012, of which 8.8 billion for French banks.

The plan also provides government guarantees to enable banks to secure funding in the medium and long term, similar to those that were implemented in fall 2008 at the height of the financial crisis.

1.000 BILLION FOR EFSF

Third and final part of the European response to the crisis, Europeans also agreed on a scaling capabilities of the European Financial Stability (EFSF), which could then be brought up to 1.000 billion euros.An initiative likely to reassure markets on its ability to fly, if any, help from countries like Italy or Spain.

The Fund had in its creation of 440 billion euros but the support in Portugal and Ireland and the complex financial arrangements necessary to give it a AAA rating reduced to about 250 billion today its actual capacity remaining.

The leverage will be achieved via a dual mechanism: on the one hand it will provide partial debt issued by troubled countries and, secondly, to create a new "special vehicle" backed by the EFSF and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with the participation of international investors, such as China and other emerging countries.

Nicolas Sarkozy, who said in Brussels that the Chinese participation was envisaged, met Thursday on the phone with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao.

The Director General of EFSF, Klaus Regling, will visit China on Friday to meet with investors.

If he had been excluded from the weekend to leverage the EFSF by providing access to unlimited liquidity to the European Central Bank, the central bank has been active in the preliminary summit.

Providing some relief to markets, the future President of ECB, Mario Draghi, stated Wednesday morning that the bank would remain present in the bond markets as they would be unstable, an expected sign for several days which was welcomed by Nicolas Sarkozy.

"I am not the spokesman for the ECB. The ECB is an independent institution. Mr. Draghi did not interviewed before making that decision, we did have asked for anything, but it is permitted to rejoice in what 'he said, which is quite clear, "he said at a press conference, then insisting on these redemptions of debt.

Between the peaks decisions that decide nothing and unexpected twists, difficult to navigate in the soap extension to the rescue of the euro. L'Expansion. Com reported on what appears achievements and problems that appear before the appointment-critical? – Wednesday. European leaders meeting in Brussels.

While the EU summit Sunday was to end months of indecision and too limited solutions, the world was offered a new appointment on Wednesday to see whether the euro area will finally be saved. Back to what appears to finally being resolved and the problems that remain … or emerging.

What is clear

The discount massive Greek debt

The banking lobby is hoping for a discount of 40%, Brussels wants instead to 50 or 60%.But if negotiations continue on the final figure, the principle of a very significant effacement of the Greek debt appears to act for both parties. To justify this level, Europe is based on a report of the troika, which includes the country's creditors, European Union, ECB and IMF. According to the report, banks must accept losses from 50% to 60% for the country's debt is sustainable. This prospect terrifies but investors in Greece. The Athens Stock Exchange fell Monday. Concerns focus on the consequences of such a discount to banks and pension funds in the country, who hold 15% of Greek sovereign debt. Local employers in turn denounced a decision that would lead to a "devaluation of financial assets and real estate" of the Greeks and "suffocation of the private sector."

The recapitalization of banks

To absorb losses arising from the discount and deal with a possible extension of impairment to Spain and Italy, banks are encouraged to recapitalize. With two options. Either they agree to promote their sovereign debt to market, whereby they are set a target to achieve a capital ratio of hard 9% by mid-2012. Either they refuse, and then have to meet a higher target of 9.5%. According to a European source, this would represent a comprehensive effort to recapitalize "107 or 108 billion euros."The scenario always favors a priority call to the private sector and the public opening of windows and finally, in case of failure the use of a solution through the EFSF.

On French banks, Baroin reiterated on Monday that Europe 1 "may not need to open this window public" and that they would carry out this recapitalization "at the expense of dividends and bonuses" . Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France, for his part spoke of a limited effort at "least ten billion euros."

Strengthening the EFSF

It is unclear exactly how the European financial stability but we know it will not be converted into bank, as called Paris. Berlin vetoed because it would require the fund to refinance with the ECB, that "treaties do not allow," said Chancellor Angela Merkel.Options to leverage the capacity of intervention of EFSF without increasing resources have been reduced to two. First possibility: make a guarantee fund for the obligations of troubled countries (Greece, Italy and Spain) that protects owners up to 20 to 30% of the loan amount. This insurance should put downward pressure on interest rates. Second option on the table: create a special fund to accept contributions from outside investors, and could be backed by the IMF. But as the EU president, Herman Van Rompuy, both options could ultimately be chosen. "Combined, these two models could have a cumulative effect," he said Sunday.

The new problems that emerge

The non-European contribution to EFSF

The proposed involvement of outside investors – outside the euro area – raises some reservations.The fear of other states to mix with European desnquiétudes rise. "The Chinese said they were interested, but some member states are skeptical about the idea of ​​integrating a Chinese contribution to the EFSF," said one diplomat. Which could ultimately leave the field open to the German proposal as EFSF Guarantee Fund.

The payment of the IMF to Greece

To avoid suffocation in the country, the creditors of Athens must pay the sixth installment of the loan of 110 billion euros. But if Europe accepted Friday the payment of its share (5.8 billion), the IMF still has not cleared the release of funds. The Secretary General of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, said Friday she would recommend the Fund to pay the remaining share (2.2 billion).But for this it will be another meeting of the Board of the IMF in November …

The use of Italy EFSF

Italy is under pressure to further reduce its debt and deficits. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was ordered to reach the European summit Wednesday with a detailed road map for further reforms of its economy, particularly on pensions. "This is not to appeal to the solidarity of partners if we do not effort," even said Nicolas Sarkozy. Now Italy has indeed need that help. She is a candidate to benefit from new support program called "precautionary" developed in July. The tool is expected to be able to provide credit lines or to allow the EFSF to buy government debt from one country to investors in the market "secondary" to influence interest rates.Relief Fund would replace the ECB and redeeming debt from the Italian August but warned that it would not do it forever. Except that Europe now poses its terms. Silvio Berlusconi has already given some pledges by suggesting that it might raise the retirement age to 67. It could also speed up privatization to relieve the huge debt the country to 1,900 billion euros.

The Irish budget deficit has reduced by 4 percentage points of GDP since 2009. Corporate profitability recovered sharply. But deleveraging too fast may influence the activity against becoming productive. Pedestrians in Dublin

If Ireland is still part of PIGS, it can not be in the same category as Greece or Portugal, as progress in a few months by former Tiger European are important. The Irish budget deficit – excluding bank recapitalization needs – fell by 4 percentage points of GDP since 2009. The current account deficit turned into a small surplus. Finally, corporate profitability recovered sharply.

The experts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of the European Central Bank (ECB) and European Commission, who have just completed their assessment mission in Ireland, are seduced. "The ongoing adjustment is solid.The 2011 budget targets will be achieved and the ongoing structural reforms will also contribute to sanitation, "they note in their report.

However, Ireland is now entering a delicate phase. Or the risk of too rapid deleveraging weigh on activity, against becoming productive. The experts of the IMF, the ECB and the Commission to admit the hint. "Ireland will have to find a balance between the imperatives of debt reduction and limitation of the barriers to growth and job creation," they point out in their report. This sentence harmless and a bit blurry could announce a change in strategy for Ireland. The country needs it, says a recent report by Goodbody Broker.

Make concessions

Indeed, in Ireland, over-indebtedness affects both the public sector, private sector and banks.Simultaneously reducing the three is clearly a bad idea, says the report. If Ireland is determined to meet all objectives at the same time, the evolving recovery will be quickly suppressed. A risk highlighted recently by the Finance Minister Michael Noonan. Especially since the motor only turns in exports. The domestic market remains depressed by lower prices (unit labor costs fell by 15% and commercial property prices have been divided by two).

We must therefore make concessions to one side. But which one? As for households, the government can not do much. The debt reached 220% of disposable income, nearly twice the international average. And fall of financial markets could reduce household net wealth of 250 billion euros. The Irish are going to have to tighten their belts for several years.Make concessions on the public debt is also not in a financial crisis. Ireland recorded a primary deficit of 6% of GDP in 2011. This is the worst result of the euro area.

Remaining banks. They must bring their ratios to 122% loan to deposit by 2013. The challenge today is to allow banks to achieve that clean without excessively penalizing the credit. This will doubtless involve additional time but also further aid from the ECB, economists now believe. Lengthy discussion in perspective.

On the eve of crucial European summit must agree on strengthening the EFSF, rumors are going well. The scenario of the report shook the stock markets. The trading floor in Frankfurt

According to information from the daily Die Welt, Germany could request that the date of the scheduled EU summit be postponed Sunday. Significant differences remain in effect for the implementation, especially the status of the EFSF "reinforced". A European diplomat had already emphasized this point of contention with the AFP in the morning.

The silence of Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy after their meeting Wednesday Express is not a good sign according to some analysts.

The summit, originally scheduled October 17, has already been postponed once.But several senior sources directly involved in the preparation and organization of the EU summit on Sunday, said on Thursday told Reuters not be aware of any proposed postponement of the meeting.

Another fear of the markets, they are trying to learn more about a paper on the EFSF, obtained by news agencies and that the European fund would be used as a last resort to recapitalize banks after the stress shareholders, private investors and governments.

Markets nervous

In this waiting period, nervousness is being felt in markets. Losses CAC40 who had reduced to just 0.5% to double and even more since the French values ​​now fall -1.35% to 15h.

European markets were down -1.1% on average (such as Madrid and Milan), but Frankfurt falls of -1.5%.

The coming months may have an air of "déjà vu" for Suez Environnement, which is likely to revise down its ambitions, as in 2009, due to the economic downturn and its impact on the volume of industrial waste.

The world number two environmental services will probably have to even make acquisitions and accelerate cost reductions to be closer to its goals 2012-2013, analysts say.

"Given the deterioration in the macroeconomic environment and its impact on the business 'waste', we believe that the group will have difficulty achieving its 2012-2013 horizon," said Julien Desmaretz, at Bryan Garnier.

Building on a "gradual economic recovery," Suez Environnement has announced that it was early 2011, at constant exchange rates, the increases of at least 5% of its turnover and 10% of its gross operating profit (EBIT, EBITDA) in 2011 compared to 2010.

He also said it expects, always at constant exchange rates, on average increases of at least 5% of its sales and at least 7% of its EBITDA over the period 2012 to 2013, he still has goals confirmed in early August .

But growth prospects that loomed earlier this year moved away, especially with the debt crisis in the eurozone, while Europe accounted for 73% of its turnover in 2010 and waste 47 %.

The International Monetary Fund even had to revise downwards in September growth forecast for 2011 and 2012.

"Asset rotation"

"We expect 6% growth in EBITDA in 2012 and 2013.For 2011, it will be fair: there are risks if the T4 seen a collapse in industrial production and prices of recycled materials, "says Yohann Terry, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas.

While threatening a new credit crunch, the prudence of Suez Environnement on acquisitions and financial profile, however, now appear as assets against his great rival Veolia Environnement, the world leader in the industry.

Just before 2008, Veolia and had instead embarked on a series of acquisitions at the top of the cycle, particularly in Germany, Italy and the United States, which proved to be far less profitable than expected in times of crisis.

The prospects of Suez, however, been a little more pressure with the sale of 70% of Bristol Water in early October for 152 million euros, the group will probably have to make acquisitions of modest size to hope to achieve its objectives.

"The group has not changed its 'guidance', confident in its ability to fill the air hole as part of its policy of rotation of assets.Does this mean that the probability of transaction (s) reasonably sized acquisitions currently under consideration (s) by the management is high? "Questioned in a note to analysts at Natixis.

"We would not be surprised (…), even if its strategic focus is on organic growth," they add.

Julien Desmaretz, Suez Environnement would need to buy at least 650 million euros in assets, enterprise value, to achieve its objectives in 2012.

"Better prepared"

The group may also consider to increase its efforts in saving a lever that allowed him to limit the damage after the crisis of late 2008, while the slowdown in activity in its industrial and commercial customers affected volumes and its margins.

But having already held in February the objectives of its savings program for 2010-2012, which it expects a net gain of RBE 300 million in cumulative over three years, some analysts estimate that Suez Environnement has now limited room for maneuver.

"Given the bad experience of late 2008, management is probably better prepared for a new fall of the economy," notes, however, Yohann Terry.

In terms of dividend, the company said in February that it was an annual increase of about 5% for the years 2011 to 2013, a policy that the economy could again challenge.

"If the growth in consumption expenditure of municipalities, industrial production and commodity prices were to decline, the purpose of dividend growth would probably be revised down due to the impact on EPS and therefore the payout "said Yohann Terry.

Some analysts believe however that the group will continue to better withstand the stock market as Veolia, which has abandoned its goals this summer and in December will detail restructuring measures designed to make it more profitable.

Since the beginning of the year, the action Suez Environnement has lost 25.8% and Veolia has plunged 47%, while the CAC 40 fell by 15.11%.

The favorite candidate in the primary socialist believes that the rising tax burden is unavoidable. The effort must be "shared", he says. François Hollande at a rally in Rennes on 27 september 2011.

François Hollande, the favorite in the polls primary PS, said Tuesday that it would "necessarily" increase the tax burden on Tuesday at a meeting in Rennes, defending his plan to re-create 60,000 jobs in education evening mobilization teacher. "There will necessarily be a rising tax burden," said the elected Corrèze to 2,000 people, noting that taxes, fees and expenses had increased by Nicolas Sarkozy (44% against 43% of GDP according to him) while the head of state promised to reduce the "four points" in 2007.

"If this effort is not shared, there will be no recovery," he added.He lampooned the tax on soft drinks recently proposed by the government: "Why sugar? Why not salt? And the salt tax would be reinvented." The evening of a day of action in education, Francois Hollande has again defended his plan to re-create 60,000 jobs in education in five years: "I prefer a plan for education (to) a plan for prisons "he said, referring to the recent announcement by the Head of State to create 30,000 prison places.

Yves Saint Laurent (PPR) has made a firm denial Monday to rumors of his replacement designer Stefano Pilati.

"Yves Saint Laurent denies and considers unsubstantiated rumors about the current direction of the creation of the house.Stefano Pilati continues to dedicate his talent and energy to Yves Saint Laurent and the parade to come, "the fashion house said in a statement.

In an article on fashion ready-to-wear in Milan, the Herald Tribune Monday spoke of the arrival of Raf Simons, current artistic director of Jil Sander, the head of the establishment of the French label.

Rumors continue to go well on the eve of Paris Fashion Week ready-to-wear spring-summer 2012.

Marc Jacobs (Louis Vuitton, LVMH) seems expected to succeed John Galliano at Dior, which has so far not confirmed.