Business & Financial News

The activity of the French manufacturing sector has improved slightly in February, according to final results of the survey from Markit purchasing managers published Thursday.

The PMI rose to 50.0 last month, slightly below the first estimate (flash) published on February 22. He had registered at 48.5 in January.

The index found the 50, which separates growth from contraction, after six months in negative territory.

The index of manufacturing production also increased, to 50.8 against 48.8 in January and 51.4 in the first estimate.

That of new orders increased to 48.2 against 45.7 a month earlier (47.9 in flash).

"After having contracted slightly over the last six months, the French manufacturing sector appears to be stabilizing in February, showing an increase in production very marginal and the volume of new export orders increased moderately, "said Jack Kennedy, economist at Markit. 

"The weak demand persists, however, the domestic market while the purchasing price inflation is increasing and reached a high of eight months," he nuance.

"The resurgence of price pressures in a context of weak demand puts businesses in a difficult situation, any attempt to protect margins could result in a further decline in new orders."

The amount of mortgage loans fell by nearly 26% over a year and nearly 50% compared to December. A real "blow". http://www.flickr.com/photos/gcattiaux/

The amount of loans granted by banks recorded a very sharp decline in January, falling 25.7% over the corresponding month of 2011, according to a study by the Housing Credit / CSA published Monday. "The year 2012 did not start very well. In a sluggish economy, the backlash movement anticipation of the end of 2011 is significant," notes the study.

On a monthly basis, the collapse is indeed brutal: -49.4% between December 2011 and January 2012 (after already falling by 34.1% between December 2010 and January 2011). "It's a blow. The fall is comparable to 2009, when the subprime crisis + + U.S., "said Michel Mouillart for AFP, professor of economics at the University of Paris West and industry expert

. For Mr.

Mouillart two decisions specific to the sector in addition to "concerns about rising unemployment, purchasing power and the unfavorable economic outlook". "First of all the strong decrease in the rate (from 22% to 13%) of the tax benefit for investors buying a new home and, in addition, the removal of zero-interest loan (PTZ) for buyers of older homes, "said M . Mouillart

. For the full year 2012, loans granted banks should amount to only 130 billion euros, a drop of almost 20% compared to 2011 (160 billion), far from the high of 2007 (170.2 billion), said Mr. Mouillart. The reversal came after an explosion of these funds since the beginning of the century who had contributed to buoyant property market in France: 70.8 billion in 2001, 87.3 in 2003, 143.7 in 2005 and 170, 2 in 2007.

Interest rates on mortgages continued to rise in January 2012 and have averaged 3.97% against 3.94% in December 2011 and 3.86% in November, a jump of more than 70 points base compared to the lowest level since 1945 (3.25% on average) reached in November 2010, according to Credit Housing.

France and Germany have given themselves until the end of January to reach a fiscal union strengthened the euro area, a project that could go through the quarantine of several countries and has generated negative reactions Monday from members of the single currency.

According to sources familiar with the exchanges between Paris and Berlin, the two countries are considering a revision to bypass formal European Treaty – a process that would last 18 months as a minimum – by working on a mini-treaty outside the Community more flexible and quicker to implement.

The billionaire is the target of a tax adjustment record says Tuesday Médiapart site. The IRS would make him pay including the concealment of twelve bank accounts abroad and the acquisition of the island secret watering. Liliane Bettencourt at the fashion week in Paris, January 26, 2011.

Nearly 78 million euros. This is the tidy sum claimed by the IRS to Liliane Bettencourt said Tuesday the site Médiapart, who had access to the report of the National Directorate of tax audits (DNVSF). "These are the amounts charged (including penalties and fines) under the wealth tax for the years 2004 to 2010 and, under the income tax for the years 2006 to 2009. The Negotiations are underway on this issue, counsel for the heir seeking a reduction in the total amount of this addition, "the site.

The Polish Minister for Finance said that the ECB should act as lender of last resort to fragile countries "to ensure stability in the euro area, its mandate". A position that faces the reluctance of the institution and Germany. ECB

The Polish Minister of Finance ruled Monday that the Europeans had a choice between "a massive intervention of the ECB" to save the euro area, "the catastrophe" of a "historic economic disaster," in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. "The dangers of contamination are now greater than ever, and the money we need to stop them have grown because we have not acted quickly enough," said Jacek Rostowski everyday German. The implementation of the stabilization fund financial EFSF long overdue for its role as a firewall and the ECB must act now, "to ensure stability in the euro area, its mandate".

"We are faced with a choice horrible. In order of horrors, the alternative is: either a massive intervention by the ECB or the catastrophe," he said. The minister, who in September had raised the risk of armed conflict in Europe if the euro crisis would lead to the collapse of the EU, in a speech to dramatic accents to the European Parliament in Strasbourg, s' Monday is called "less reassured" after two months. "The risk is that of a historic economic disaster like the Great Depression of the 1930s, lead to the final of Europe in war," he added.

The European Central Bank (ECB) refuses to act as lender of last resort of the European states by buying an unlimited sovereign bonds, as it acquires dropper and on the secondary market.

Morgan Stanley said Wednesday it posted a profit in the third quarter, supported by an accounting effect that stems from a new valuation of its debt.

The second U.S. investment bank posted a profit of $ 2.15 billion (1.55 billion), $ 1.15 per share against a loss of 7 cents a year earlier.

Net banking income rose 46% to 9.89 dollars.

Excluding a gain of $ 3.4 billion attributed to an adjustment of the value of its debt, Morgan Stanley gained 2 cents a share.This is related to an accounting rule known as an "adjustment to the valuation of debt" (debt valuation adjustements or DVA).

Clearly, the fact of integrating into account the increased risk associated with a reduced commitment required of the holder, thus generating accounting profits.

Before Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have also used the accounting process.

Forward Exchange, the title of Morgan Stanley advanced 18 cents to 16.81 dollars.

Income from its trading activities more than doubled from the third quarter of 2010 and an increase of 24% over the period April-JuneThis sharp increase reflects the gains attributable to the DVA.

Its asset management segment has meanwhile reached a revenue of 3.26 billion dollars, 5% more than last year at this time, but less than the second quarter.

GNP derived from asset management is in turn stood at $ 215 million, 73% from the third quarter of last year and 67% less than in April-June 2011.

This decline is attributed to losses on investments in its banking business and its activities in real estate.

The coming months may have an air of "déjà vu" for Suez Environnement, which is likely to revise down its ambitions, as in 2009, due to the economic downturn and its impact on the volume of industrial waste.

The world number two environmental services will probably have to even make acquisitions and accelerate cost reductions to be closer to its goals 2012-2013, analysts say.

"Given the deterioration in the macroeconomic environment and its impact on the business 'waste', we believe that the group will have difficulty achieving its 2012-2013 horizon," said Julien Desmaretz, at Bryan Garnier.

Building on a "gradual economic recovery," Suez Environnement has announced that it was early 2011, at constant exchange rates, the increases of at least 5% of its turnover and 10% of its gross operating profit (EBIT, EBITDA) in 2011 compared to 2010.

He also said it expects, always at constant exchange rates, on average increases of at least 5% of its sales and at least 7% of its EBITDA over the period 2012 to 2013, he still has goals confirmed in early August .

But growth prospects that loomed earlier this year moved away, especially with the debt crisis in the eurozone, while Europe accounted for 73% of its turnover in 2010 and waste 47 %.

The International Monetary Fund even had to revise downwards in September growth forecast for 2011 and 2012.

"Asset rotation"

"We expect 6% growth in EBITDA in 2012 and 2013.For 2011, it will be fair: there are risks if the T4 seen a collapse in industrial production and prices of recycled materials, "says Yohann Terry, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas.

While threatening a new credit crunch, the prudence of Suez Environnement on acquisitions and financial profile, however, now appear as assets against his great rival Veolia Environnement, the world leader in the industry.

Just before 2008, Veolia and had instead embarked on a series of acquisitions at the top of the cycle, particularly in Germany, Italy and the United States, which proved to be far less profitable than expected in times of crisis.

The prospects of Suez, however, been a little more pressure with the sale of 70% of Bristol Water in early October for 152 million euros, the group will probably have to make acquisitions of modest size to hope to achieve its objectives.

"The group has not changed its 'guidance', confident in its ability to fill the air hole as part of its policy of rotation of assets.Does this mean that the probability of transaction (s) reasonably sized acquisitions currently under consideration (s) by the management is high? "Questioned in a note to analysts at Natixis.

"We would not be surprised (…), even if its strategic focus is on organic growth," they add.

Julien Desmaretz, Suez Environnement would need to buy at least 650 million euros in assets, enterprise value, to achieve its objectives in 2012.

"Better prepared"

The group may also consider to increase its efforts in saving a lever that allowed him to limit the damage after the crisis of late 2008, while the slowdown in activity in its industrial and commercial customers affected volumes and its margins.

But having already held in February the objectives of its savings program for 2010-2012, which it expects a net gain of RBE 300 million in cumulative over three years, some analysts estimate that Suez Environnement has now limited room for maneuver.

"Given the bad experience of late 2008, management is probably better prepared for a new fall of the economy," notes, however, Yohann Terry.

In terms of dividend, the company said in February that it was an annual increase of about 5% for the years 2011 to 2013, a policy that the economy could again challenge.

"If the growth in consumption expenditure of municipalities, industrial production and commodity prices were to decline, the purpose of dividend growth would probably be revised down due to the impact on EPS and therefore the payout "said Yohann Terry.

Some analysts believe however that the group will continue to better withstand the stock market as Veolia, which has abandoned its goals this summer and in December will detail restructuring measures designed to make it more profitable.

Since the beginning of the year, the action Suez Environnement has lost 25.8% and Veolia has plunged 47%, while the CAC 40 fell by 15.11%.

An official with the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday that if any institution could buy bonds Spanish and Italian, along with the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) prior to distance himself a little later with this idea.

Antonio Borges, Director of the IMF's European Department, said at a news conference that the IMF "might even invest with the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).We would definitely ready to play this role. "

Greater involvement of the IMF in attempts to resolve the debt crisis in the euro area could reassure some investors who feel it is out of control.

"The investments we would do in Spain or Italy would be based on the certainty that these countries are on track, they are solvent and to take all necessary measures," said Antonio Borges.

"Because the EFSF now has the opportunity to invest in secondary markets, we could invest with him, to support the debt markets in Italy and Spain with an additional element of credibility," he said.

Later, Antonio Borges, issued a statement saying he wanted to "clarify some comments earlier held" by saying that the IMF could act directly on the bond markets.

"The IMF can only offer our resources to countries, it can not be used to intervene directly in the bond markets. We do no involvement in the market with the EFSF," said he.

The EFSF, with 440 billion euros, is seen as not sufficiently abundant in case of worsening of the crisis.And European officials are already thinking about increasing its response capacity through leverage.

ECB must remain active in the bond market-BORGES

At the press conference before his release correcting his remarks, Antonio Borges had said he wanted to wait for the ratification of the new powers of EFSF before further action by the IMF.

The IMF could go further and invest directly in bonds in Italy and Spain and for this he will have to create an investment vehicle specific, had said Antonio Borges.

He also felt that the European Central Bank should remain active in the bond market to help stabilize it, even after strengthening the powers of the European Financial Stability Fund, the EFSF.

ECB buys government bonds Spain and Italy on the secondary market since August to prevent the cost of borrowing in these countries do not rise to prohibitive levels.

The ECB considers that this action is somehow an extension of its monetary policy decisions.But many economists believe the central bank in the euro zone will no longer intervene in the market when the EFSF will feature its new powers including the purchase of debt on the secondary market.

"The ECB has a very important role to play in restoring market stability in Europe," said the director of the IMF's European department, Antonio Borges, at a press conference. "It is not possible to have a monetary union with the debt markets of extraordinary instability, as is the case today."

It is not, says the IMF, the spendthrifts save states, but to smooth out market fluctuations."A steady market intervention to stabilize the conditions would be most appropriate," said Antonio Borges.

Governments in the euro area might consider a way to make such operations more acceptable to the ECB, whose statutes forbid it to fund government.

"If that means give the ECB some degree of support from finance ministries across Europe, in order to provide additional comfort to make it easier, we would certainly very happy to see that happen, "said Antonio Borges.

"There are several ways to do so. This could simply be guaranteed by several ministries of finance, this could be the EFSF, there are many possibilities.The most important thing is to make it easier for the ECB to stabilize a presence in the markets, "he added.

Yves Saint Laurent (PPR) has made a firm denial Monday to rumors of his replacement designer Stefano Pilati.

"Yves Saint Laurent denies and considers unsubstantiated rumors about the current direction of the creation of the house.Stefano Pilati continues to dedicate his talent and energy to Yves Saint Laurent and the parade to come, "the fashion house said in a statement.

In an article on fashion ready-to-wear in Milan, the Herald Tribune Monday spoke of the arrival of Raf Simons, current artistic director of Jil Sander, the head of the establishment of the French label.

Rumors continue to go well on the eve of Paris Fashion Week ready-to-wear spring-summer 2012.

Marc Jacobs (Louis Vuitton, LVMH) seems expected to succeed John Galliano at Dior, which has so far not confirmed.

The pessimistic comments by the Fed on the U.S. economy were right the last hopes of the market. Paris loses about 5% as other European markets, the euro and oil fall as well.

Financial markets no longer know where to turn. They awaited the Fed's effective measures to stimulate activity, they have mostly kept very pessimistic comments on the U.S. economy. And as concerns over the health of European banks are still there, the world's stock markets have performed a new dive on Thursday.

After opening sharply lower, European stock markets accentuated their losses by mid-afternoon. The Paris Bourse and yielded 4.57%, Frankfurt 3.77%, 4.70% London, Milan and Madrid 3.70% 4.40%. At the opening of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones lost 1.45% and the Nasdaq 2.85%..

Bank stocks, especially French, were the first victims of this new access of depression. Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and Natixis were down more than 7%. BNP Paribas, some limited damage to -3.3%. Alarmist comments by an officer of the influential American fund Pimco, saying that French banks could tip the whole of Europe into recession, came to power concerns.

Equity markets are not the only ones suffering. Direct result of growth at half mast, and thus reduced demand, oil prices plunged more than 5% in New York, returning to their lowest levels in a month. A barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery traded at 80.91 dollars.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro has meanwhile fallen below $ 1.35. It especially touched its lowest level for ten years against the yen.

Main accused of helping the new blues, the U.S. central bank. "The Fed, instead of reassuring the markets, instead encouraged the weak operators and increased their aversion to assets considered risky," explained Jane Foley, analyst at Rabobank.

As expected, it has announced the launch of Operation Twist, which will be for sale by the end of June 2012 for $ 400 billion of treasury bills in order to redeem an equivalent amount with a longer maturity. The stated objective is to lower interest rates over time. Problem, the effectiveness of the measure is highly controversial because these rates are already low. Its impact on business would not be obvious.

Unconvincing in action, the Fed, however, impressed the market by the extent of his pessimism on the U.S. economy, citing the "continuing weakness" of the labor market and "significant risks" associated with "tensions global financial markets. " Expected as the messiah, Bern Bernanke, the head of the U.S. central bank has disappointed. The Fed "does not have the tools to miraculously revive economic growth," could only observe Nigel Gault, the firm IHS Global Insight.

Several indicators have confirmed the sluggishness of activity across the Atlantic, like the new jobless claims last week to 423,000, down but higher than expected (418,000). For its part, the Conference Board's composite index came out up 0.3% in August, but slowed down, which is a sign of increased risks to growth.The U.S. treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, has found himself in Washington that the slow economic growth was a challenge "bigger" than the debt that states the world should give priority to support growth.

As if this were not enough, the bad news continued to accumulate on the side of the euro area. The private sector activity there is in fact contracted in September for the first time in over two years, according to a first estimate of the firm Markit PMI. The activity slows and approaches the stagnation in Germany and France, the two largest economies in the region, the source said. Italy, whose financial markets worried, revised sharply downward its growth forecasts, reduced to 0.7% for 2011, 0.6% in 2012 and 0.9% in 2013.Rome assured that the austerity plan passed last week was enough to balance the budget by 2013. But the bond market, the Italian securities suffered, with a standard rate record deal with German titles, safe havens in which investors have rushed. The performance of the German Bund and 10-year fell to its lowest ever observed in 1.665%.

The debate continues in Europe on the recapitalization of banks, following the call to use the IMF's European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) to recapitalize the most exposed to the debt crisis. The IMF estimates the potential losses in the sector to 200 billion euros. Echoing the words of his colleague in charge of Competition, Joaquin Almunia, European Commissioner Michel Barnier to Financial Services found that 25 of them need to be recapitalized.