The agreement snatched in the night between Wednesday and Thursday by leaders of the euro area has temporarily turned off the fire that threatened the single currency but many risks still on the Greek debt restructuring and strengthening of the support fund the euro.
After more than ten hours of the summit, the Heads of State and Government of the single currency agreed with banks to reduce by 100 billion euros Greek debt and endorsed a complex mechanism to bring the firepower the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) to 1,000 billion.
European markets jumped and reached their highest level in three months while the euro was appreciating at more than $ 1.40, a value that had not crossed since early September.
But if this complex agreement among the most ambitious concluded since the bursting of the debt crisis in Greece in late 2009, it is nonetheless flawed, full of question marks and carries significant risks on its realization.
The bankers must first confirm their voluntary commitment to participate in the new bailout of Greece – a process that was long winded in the previous program.
Countries in the euro area should then agree on a series of far from trivial details in the implementation of the new EFSF, as the participation of international investors to it.
"I think the main risk would be to wait too long the implementation of these agreements," warned Thursday Ewald Nowotny, a member of the European Central Bank.
"Speed is essential in this case," he told Austrian radio ORF.
GREEK RESTRUCTURING
Three months ago, European leaders had already reached agreement on a major debt reduction Greek involving private creditors, but the delays in implementing the plan and its lack of ambition have quickly rendered inoperative, at least in the eyes of the markets.
Decisions taken at dawn Thursday, finally attacking head-on questions of Greek debt and contagion of the crisis to larger countries such as Italy, Spain or France, are expected to avoid the euro area to repeat the same mistakes.
For Greece, it is expected that the debt be reduced from more than 160% of GDP to 120% in 2020, a level considered sustainable by the European authorities.
To do this, the governments of the euro area will set the table 130 billion euros in loans and guarantees, while private creditors will remove 100 billion from 210 billion euros of Greek securities they hold.
This voluntary contribution, expected to be received by the end of the year will amount to a waiver of 50%, said Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, who had to meet in person with representatives of banks and weigh their weight to force the decision.
The Director General of the Institute of International Finance (IIF) Charles Dallara, who represented the banks in the negotiation, welcomed the agreement, which revises the plan of July 21, in which the private sector was engaged only up to 50 billion euros.
As expected, the leaders of twenty-seven have also endorsed the plan to recapitalize banks to the tune of 106 billion euros by June 30, 2012, of which 8.8 billion for French banks.
The plan also provides government guarantees to enable banks to secure funding in the medium and long term, similar to those that were implemented in fall 2008 at the height of the financial crisis.
1.000 BILLION FOR EFSF
Third and final part of the European response to the crisis, Europeans also agreed on a scaling capabilities of the European Financial Stability (EFSF), which could then be brought up to 1.000 billion euros.An initiative likely to reassure markets on its ability to fly, if any, help from countries like Italy or Spain.
The Fund had in its creation of 440 billion euros but the support in Portugal and Ireland and the complex financial arrangements necessary to give it a AAA rating reduced to about 250 billion today its actual capacity remaining.
The leverage will be achieved via a dual mechanism: on the one hand it will provide partial debt issued by troubled countries and, secondly, to create a new "special vehicle" backed by the EFSF and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with the participation of international investors, such as China and other emerging countries.
Nicolas Sarkozy, who said in Brussels that the Chinese participation was envisaged, met Thursday on the phone with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao.
The Director General of EFSF, Klaus Regling, will visit China on Friday to meet with investors.
If he had been excluded from the weekend to leverage the EFSF by providing access to unlimited liquidity to the European Central Bank, the central bank has been active in the preliminary summit.
Providing some relief to markets, the future President of ECB, Mario Draghi, stated Wednesday morning that the bank would remain present in the bond markets as they would be unstable, an expected sign for several days which was welcomed by Nicolas Sarkozy.
"I am not the spokesman for the ECB. The ECB is an independent institution. Mr. Draghi did not interviewed before making that decision, we did have asked for anything, but it is permitted to rejoice in what 'he said, which is quite clear, "he said at a press conference, then insisting on these redemptions of debt.