Business & Financial News

Japanese gross domestic product increased by 1% from January to March compared with the previous quarter, helped by a rebound increase in consumption, for reconstruction after the earthquake of March 11, 2011 and some improvement in exports, according to government statistics released Thursday.

On an annualized basis, GDP was up 4.1%, above economists' expectations (3.5%), against 2.2% for the U.S. over the same pe riod.

First announced in fall of 0.2%, the economy finally stagnated between October and December.

Consumption, which the Japanese economy depends to 60%, increased 1.1%, while economists expected a 0.8% increase, thanks to subsidies the purchase of fuel efficient cars. 

Consumption contributed 0.7 percentage points to quarterly growth and public investment to 0.3 points.

Economists expect a Japanese GDP growth of around 2% during the fiscal year that began in April, with a gradual recovery of the U.S. economy and the work reconstruction in the northeast of the archipelago devastated by the earthquake and tsunami of March 11, 2011.

"Consumer spending and public investment have brought the economy, with demand for automobiles supported by government incentives and investment supported by supplementary budgets that followed the earthquake , "said Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief economist at Itochu Economic Research Institute. 

"So if they are government policies that are behind this quarterly growth, can not have say it reflects a strong economy."

The yen, which remains a strong currency poses risks in the medium and long-term competitiveness of Japanese products and hinders exports.

Europe, one of the major markets of Japan, parallel to continue mired in crisis and the European consumer behavior does not bode well for Japanese exports.

"I monitor the situation in Europe carefully, because it interferes with the movements of foreign exchange market. We will take strong decisions against excessive movements on the foreign exchange market, "said Japanese Economy Minister Motohisa Furukawa

…. ….. Economists expect growth of 1.0% in the first quarter is a peak in 2012. Their median forecast of growth shows an increase of 0 , 5% early in the second and third quarters and 0.4% during the last three months of the year

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The euro fell to its lowest level in four months, tormented by the crisis in Greece and its possible output of the common currency. View from the seat of the ECB in Frankfurt

The euro fell below 1.27 dollars Wednesday, displayed at its lowest level in four months, following the failure of the formation of a coalition government in Greece, which worries the markets.

Wednesday at 7:00, the euro bought 1.2693 dollars, its lowest value since January 16 when he was traded again to 1.2728 dollars on Tuesday to 9:00 p.m.. The single European currency also fell against the yen, quoting 102.00 yen, its lowest level since mid-February vis-à-vis the Japanese currency. It was still worth 102.12 yen Tuesday at 2100.

Investors were worried about political instability in Greece, where new elections will take place by end June, no coalition government could not be formed at the end of negotiations following the elections on May 6

This election saw the Greeks punish the two pillars of the country's political system, the New Democracy (right) and PASOK (Socialist), because of their support for the austerity measures imposed by creditors in exchange Athens international loans needed to avoid bankruptcy the country. The party of the radical left Syriza, who focused his campaign on the rejection of rigor, came in second place on May 6 and seems to have the wind in their sails.

The political impasse has revived fears of a possible exit from the country of the euro area, the consequences seem difficult to predict. At their first joint press conference Tuesday evening, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and new French president Francois Hollande were willing "to consider additional measures for growth in Greece," if it requested. They also stated their desire that the country "remains in the euro area".

French banking stocks opened sharply down Monday on the Paris Stock Exchange, after the results of parliamentary elections in Greece and the presidential election in France.

In early trade, the shares agricultural, heavily exposed to Greece because of its local subsidiary Emporiki weighed down by losses, falling nearly 6%.

BNP Paribas and Societe Generale fell by more than 3.5%, underperforming the European banking index down by 1.18% at the same time. 

In Greece, voters, angered by the recession and austerity, were heavily penalized Sunday the two main parties, New Democracy (ND, right) and the Party Socialist (PASOK), and offered to the radical left a spectacular breakthrough in the risk of boosting debt crisis and questions about maintaining their country in the euro area.

In France, Socialist Francois Hollande, who plans to reform the banking system to protect customer deposits and make the market less risky activities, has won Sunday's presidential election, marking the return of the left in power.

Wall Street opened slightly lower Monday, threatening to end a streak of four consecutive sessions of gains in a context of renewed tensions in Europe and mixed U.S. data es.

In early trade, the Dow dropped 0.07% to 13,218.93 points. The Standard & Poor's, wider, yielding 0.27% to 1,399.59 points points while the Nasdaq composite lost 0.22% to 3062.58 points.

The announcement on Monday's return to recession in Spain has revived fears about the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone.

"The market took a break while a busy week looms in statistics," said Andre Bakhos at Lek Securities.

The U.S. household spending rose less than expected 0.3% in March while their incomes have emerged up 0.4%, according to statistics released by the De ; Department of Commerce.

Investors will also monitor the publication in the afternoon of the index of purchasing managers in manufacturing PMI in the Chicago area. 

Last week, the S & P has aligned four sessions in a row in the green due to good earnings reports of companies, who brought the index close to balance in April. He declined, however, still 0.4% on the month, poised to sign a fifth consecutive month of decline.

Values, Apple fell by 1.3% and Google was down slightly from 0.06%. Both groups could include the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the context of a revision of the index, joining the elite 30 companies at the expense of more traditional companies like Alcoa Inc. (-0.7%), Barron's said Sunday.

The title of Barnes & Noble jumped over 11% in early trade after Microsoft announced it would invest $ 300 million in university activities and digital chain libraries.

Labor costs in Germany rose at the slowest rate of any European Union over the past decade, said Tuesday the Federal Office of Statistics , emphasizing the positive effect of wage moderation.

The cost of one hour of work in the private sector rose 19.4% between 2001 and 2011 in Germany, which is half that in France, where the cost jumped 39.2 % over the same period, well above the European average of 36.1%.

The moderate wage growth, which started from a high base, helped Germany to remain among the top exporting economies in the world and to remain competitive . 

"The moderate wage growth in recent years has made possible a positive development (…). Many new jobs were created and existing jobs are been protected, supporting consumption, "said the director of the Chamber of Commerce, Martin Wansleben.

In 2011, German employers paid an average of 30.10 euros for each full hour of work in the private sector, well above the average for the EU to 22.80 euros.

Belgium shows labor costs the highest in the region at 39.30 euros per hour while Bulgaria has the lowest, to 3.50 euros.

Bad news on the economic front: the activity in the services sector began to turn to contract and morale deteriorates entrepreneur. The recovery will be anemic. French executives come to the business district of La Defense

The significant recovery announced by Nicolas Sarkozy is struggling to emerge. Instead, the slump continues, whether in industry or in services. The private sector activity has indeed registered the largest decline since 6 months, according to a first estimate of the PMI index released Monday by the firm Markit. The index "flash" composite of overall activity in France has contracted from 48.7 points in March to 46.8 points in April, below the 50 points that mark a contraction in activity. This decline reflects a sharp deterioration in performance of the services sector, whose activity fell for the first time in five months.  

The French industrial morale has degraded him in April compared with the previous month, according to the business survey released Monday by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE). The composite indicator of business climate in the industry fell 95 points, against 98 in March and remains below its long-term average set at 100 points.

"Here we have throughout the disappointing figures, downright disappointing side of the PMI surveys," summed Baudchon Helena, economist at BNP Paribas of France. Details of the survey by INSEE in March, which marked a rebound of industrial morale, "let hope for a continued recovery," said she. "I expected better than this: the confirmation of a rebound in confidence of business leaders," adds his colleague Societe Generale, Michael Martinez.  

The overall indicator of business climate in France, INSEE calculated from the responses of CEOs of major industries, is itself almost unchanged in April, to 95 points, with a decline in the building, an increase in retail trade and a stable indicator in services.

An anemic recovery

"In total, still manages to defend the idea that the French economy is now rebounding from a low point that has been the fourth quarter and first quarter. But the strength of this rebound is very very low, "says Mr. Martinez, who expects a decline of 0.1% of GDP in the first quarter, followed by an increase of 0.1% in the second.  

According to Jack Kennedy, the firm Markit economist, "the second quarter of 2012 will be difficult for the French economy, the service activity in April showing a decline in concern while a decline in manufacturing persists." He perceives a "wait and widespread household as businesses at the approach of the presidential election".

An argument that refutes Ms. Baudchon, for whom "the external economic and financial environment always difficult is a good explanation of the new shift in the PMI surveys in France and Germany".

Sector by sector in the industry, the survey by INSEE mask disparities and it appears that the decline is mainly due to the vehicle with the past activity "would have contracted sharply" and metallurgy.  

A table overshadowed by the automobile?

The overall order books and foreign French carmakers are down sharply while that "given the personal perspectives of production, the activity could fall further in coming months," said INSEE.

"Outside the car, which suffers from the end of certain tax provisions and the European context with overproduction on a European scale, we nevertheless confirmed that production recovered slightly and the personal perspectives of production are well oriented ", says Mr. Martinez.

The Defense Ministry said Tuesday it has given to the supplier Thales the first tranche, amounting to 263 million euros, an equipment contract of the French army in next-generation tactical radios from 2018.

The radios of the "Contact" will allow simultaneous transmission and highly secure voice and data for the infantry and armor, the ministry said in a statement.

In a second step, these positions also equip combat aircraft, intelligence and transportation and vessels.

The first installment, devoted to development work, will be notified at Thales Communications in the coming days, the ministry added. 

The contract, which is part of Scorpio French military modernization, especially equip future multi-role armored vehicles (VMBR) called to replace the current armored vehicles ahead (VAB).

According to Le Figaro, the contract of three to four billion euros in total over a period of 22 years had been approved by the Ministry of Defence, but that's the Economy ' objected to the notification of an important contract in its presidential campaign, prompting Prime Minister Francois Fillon to rule in favor of the project.

The Defense Ministry was not immediately available to comment on this point.

Areva announced Friday an agreement with EDF to provide the public with electrician nuclear fuel assemblies and related services for the years 2013 and 2014.

Financial details of the agreement were not specified.

The fuel assemblies, which confine radioactive material in sealed ducts, are the Centrally? Heart of a nuclear reactor, where fission takes place.

Areva and EDF also agreed to negotiate a framework agreement in the medium and long term on the fabrication of fuel elements.

The gas leak on a Total deposits in the North Sea will be expensive to French oil group, but the situation seems out of proportion to the oil spill in 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico after the explosion of a BP platform.

Analysts polled by Reuters, the cost for Total could be limited to $ 150 million (113 million) if the leak was quickly clogged, or otherwise be at least $ 10 billion if the platform of the Elgin-Franklin field eventually explode.

Total has not ruled on Tuesday that the repair takes several weeks or up to six months, and keen Wednesday the exact cause of the leak. 

The prospect of a distant deadline for resolving the industrial crisis, the worst that Total has seen since the sinking of the Erika in 1999 and the explosion at the AZF factory in 2001, brutally brought down the stock market as Tuesday. The stock has lost 5.96%, leading to the Group's market capitalization plunge of about six billion euros.

Total lost the title still nearly 1% to 38.23 euros on Wednesday afternoon.

"Although it is far too early to make a reliable assessment of the impact of the leak (…) for Total, one can estimate a minimum cost of 150 to 200 million dollars in the best case (limited to two weeks off) or even more if the current situation was to last several months, "CM-CIC Securities.

While the field of Elgin-Franklin alone accounted for 2.5% of total production in 2011, the intermediary also assesses the shortfall for the group between 3 , 6 and 5 million per day shutdown of operations. 

LESS STRICT LAWS IN THE UK

Drilling a relief well could cost him only $ 44 million, assesses his side Exane BNP Paribas.

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, if an explosion had finally held, "the impact could reach $ 10 billion" for Total.

This amount includes the loss of deposits and the platform and nearly deus billion to clean up environmental damage, but excludes any fines.

Most observers point out however that the situation on the Elgin-Franklin field is not nearly as critical as that of the Deepwater Horizon, in the Gulf of Mexico, including the explosion and sinking had made eleven dead in April 2010 and resulted in a serious oil spill. 

In total, the British BP has had to make provision for $ 37.2 billion deal with the consequences of this accident.

While nine million barrels of crude oil escaped from the Macondo well drilled on behalf of BP after the accident, analysts point out that only gas and products "light" is e ; chappent the Elgin wells, which should significantly reduce pollution.

Some further notes that the economic activity of the British coast is less important than the U.S. states bordering the Gulf of Mexico and the United Kingdom has not yet introduced legislation involving sanctions as severe as those imposed by the United States in case of water pollution.

"We do not expect major Total incur fines or provisions that must pass (…) As important as those of BP in the case of Macondo, "estimated the Exane BNP Paribas analysts

." This kind of accident is often unpredictable and difficult to resolve. Nevertheless, we think the probability is low to see the leak reach crisis proportions comparable to Deepwater Horizon, "he wrote on his side Fitch ……. According

.. rating agency, Total should maintain its AA credit rating even in the event of complete closure of the deposit of Elgin.

The number of referrals to the Ombudsman of energy increased 14% in 2011. At issue: payment difficulties. The Ombudsman proposes to introduce a general truce breaks from November 1 to March 15.

The cases of fuel poverty rose sharply last year in France, as a result of the crisis and rising energy bills and gas, says National Energy Ombudsman in his 2011 report published Tuesday. The Ombudsman, an independent administrative authority which began operations in 2008, saw its number of referrals increase by 14% last year, in 8044, it said in its annual report, up a bit weaker than the explosion recorded in previous exercises.

But of that total, the number of cases related to payment difficulties has increased by 80% compared to 2010, and represented over 15% of all referrals, calculated the Ombudsman. "The economic crisis and rising energy prices have compounded the problem of fuel poverty", that is to say, struggling to pay their electric bills or gas, and pushed more and more income households to seek mediation, the institution said. The Ombudsman recalls in passing that the regulated gas prices rose 25% in two years, and those of electricity by 8%.

The Ombudsman also proposes measures to better fight against the rise of fuel poverty, considering the schemes (such as social tariffs for electricity and gas, whose allocation has been made automatic for all eligible households ) insufficient, even if they are "in the right direction." It proposes the establishment of a general truce breaks from November 1 to March 15 for all consumers, on the model of the winter break of evictions (a truce energy cuts already applied but only for some consumers), and the establishment of an "energy check", which may be substituted for social tariffs.