The survival of the euro area requires a strengthening of the capital of its banking sector and especially by the federalization of its debt, says economist Jacques Delpla.
By accepting the principle that a member may be lacking, the agreement of July 21 on Greece threatens the euro area short-term burst, the judge on the Board of Economic Analysis, regularly consulted by policy makers French .
In this scenario, and without further action in the medium term, only a massive intervention by the European Central Bank may allow the euro area to remain in one piece, he said in a telephone interview with Reuters.
"The bursting of the euro area is the default position if we stick to the agreement of July 21," he said."It opens the Pandora's box.It was agreed that a country may be lacking in the euro zone and therefore the infection is there. "
Spain and Italy are already in sight and France, notably due to the exposure of its banks could follow, he argues.
"If we stick to the agreement of July 21, there is more than euro area before the end of the year unless the ECB buys all that problematic," he said.
To avoid this nightmare scenario, Jacques Delpla has a solution.
Its mechanism, developed with the German economist Jakob von Weizsäcker and a new version which will be presented next month, is to reform the structure of the European bond market by dividing into two legally public debt of each country in the euro area.
THE BLUE AND RED
On the one hand, debt payment, up to 60% of GDP, which would be pooled at the European level and managed by a European debt.
The rest of the debt would be red and focus on default risk of each country.
"There will be no euro area if there is no federal debt," said Jacques Delpla.
Debt blue, very safe, would be attractive to a market hungry for reliable asset and may even compete with the U.S. debt, he said.
Economist breath are two ideas to Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, who will meet Tuesday at the Elysée with the menu how to strengthen the governance of the Euro weakened by the crisis of sovereign debt.
"The first is to strengthen the equity of the massive European banking sector, South and North, and the second is to go to debt payment," he said.
"I have not seen a proposal on the market better than ours," he insists.
STILL OPTIMISTIC
Jacques Delpla do not think that Europe but also in France, who must announce the August 24 new measures to meet its targets for reduction of public deficits.
"The objectives of the France based on a growth assumption is too high," said he.
"In the draft budget law is coming, there would be a reduction of public deficits, relative to what had been considered, two additional percentage points of GDP over two years, which would find 30 billion in 2012 and 10 in 2013.
"Otherwise, (Jean-Claude) Trichet will send the letter, or (Mario) Draghi, consult only the Parliament and it will no longer bother to ask France to be co-leader of the Europe ", he added, referring to the current president of the European Central Bank (ECB) and his designated successor.
The authors of the Maastricht Treaty had foreseen everything except a panic attack sovereign debt, estimated Delpla Jacques, who does not pay, however, not pessimism.
His reasons for optimism are three in number.
"First, I think the government will do what it takes," he said. "It is in the interest of Nicolas Sarkozy to be hard on deficits and he knows that if it does not, by default, it is beaten.
"Then I think the Germans will do the right thing too," he says. "At the foot of the wall, they still choose Europe."
The third reason is illustrated by the train he said drastic measures recently announced by Silvio Berlusconi.
"Countries are now obliged to take measures conducive to growth that they did not until now for reasons of petty politics," he says.