Business & Financial News

Sales were flat compared to last year and prospects by the end of the operation on February 14 are bad. Winter sales, January 2010

Sales of the first half of the winter sales are stable, but the figures hide wide disparities in the types of stores, and prospects by the end of the transaction on Feb. 14 are "brittle" in the context of crisis. The French Fashion Institute (IFM), which refers, on Tuesday released the figures of the first two weeks of sales, traditionally the most active of the operation, lasting five weeks. On average, "it is not extraordinary, but it's not a disaster," said Gildas Minvielle, head of the Economic Observatory of the IFM, recalling that in 2011, the first half had balances resulted in sales between 0 and 1%.

For circuits, the figures are still "quite mixed," with a "bonus" to some shops downtown, he notes. Stores called "popular" category which essentially network Monoprix, sign the best performance with sales up 10% to 15%. Department stores, hypermarkets and supermarkets other retailers and mass market chains (which sell both clothing man, woman and child and are often on the periphery or Kiabi as La Halle) show an increase between 0 and 5%. But sales of independent multi-brand and specialty channels (type H & M, Zara …) fell between -5% and 0%. "The outlook for the remaining weeks of sales are weak" and 48% of Distributors expect a negative activity, says the IFM.

For their part, traders are more or less satisfied with the first two weeks of sales. – "Balance not good for the moment." Malls display an attendance close to last year (+0.3%), while revenue rose "in the order of 1 or 2%," according to Jean-Marie Silberstein, managing director of National Council of Shopping Centers (CNCC). "The purchases cheap work well in times of crisis, the consumer is on the lookout for bargains," said he. Side e-commerce, the sector federation announced for the first week sales jumped 14% (18% for sites mainly textiles).  

"Some of us are happy, others less," said Bertrand Morvan for his part, Chairman of the National Federation of clothing (FNH, independent). "We do not necessarily sold large pieces, perhaps does one sell from now with the cold snap. I think it will not be such a bad thought it," he predicts. "Cool weather will surely boost some sales, especially large pieces," added Jean-Marc Genis, president of the Federation of brands of clothing (FEH), which unites the chain, whose sales fell to about 2% over the first half. Francois-Marie for Grau, chief representative of the French Federation of ready-to-wear, "the record is not good for now".

Involved "essentially the problem of purchasing power experienced by consumers." Evidenced by sales of low end, suffer the most, is he. He also cited "the climate problem", with a cold came late, and the rise to power of "floating sales, promotions, private sales, and prices crossed on the internet." The Secretary of State for Trade Frederic Lefebvre said Monday in As part of the event Passion Commerce's decision to entrust a mission Crédoc on the issue of balances, balances floating, promotions, sales and private sales, said its services. This is to take stock, three years after the Act of modernizing the economy (LME), which governs the system of sales and promotions, and to determine whether changes are needed.

France and Germany have given themselves until the end of January to reach a fiscal union strengthened the euro area, a project that could go through the quarantine of several countries and has generated negative reactions Monday from members of the single currency.

According to sources familiar with the exchanges between Paris and Berlin, the two countries are considering a revision to bypass formal European Treaty – a process that would last 18 months as a minimum – by working on a mini-treaty outside the Community more flexible and quicker to implement.

Between the peaks decisions that decide nothing and unexpected twists, difficult to navigate in the soap extension to the rescue of the euro. L'Expansion. Com reported on what appears achievements and problems that appear before the appointment-critical? – Wednesday. European leaders meeting in Brussels.

While the EU summit Sunday was to end months of indecision and too limited solutions, the world was offered a new appointment on Wednesday to see whether the euro area will finally be saved. Back to what appears to finally being resolved and the problems that remain … or emerging.

What is clear

The discount massive Greek debt

The banking lobby is hoping for a discount of 40%, Brussels wants instead to 50 or 60%.But if negotiations continue on the final figure, the principle of a very significant effacement of the Greek debt appears to act for both parties. To justify this level, Europe is based on a report of the troika, which includes the country's creditors, European Union, ECB and IMF. According to the report, banks must accept losses from 50% to 60% for the country's debt is sustainable. This prospect terrifies but investors in Greece. The Athens Stock Exchange fell Monday. Concerns focus on the consequences of such a discount to banks and pension funds in the country, who hold 15% of Greek sovereign debt. Local employers in turn denounced a decision that would lead to a "devaluation of financial assets and real estate" of the Greeks and "suffocation of the private sector."

The recapitalization of banks

To absorb losses arising from the discount and deal with a possible extension of impairment to Spain and Italy, banks are encouraged to recapitalize. With two options. Either they agree to promote their sovereign debt to market, whereby they are set a target to achieve a capital ratio of hard 9% by mid-2012. Either they refuse, and then have to meet a higher target of 9.5%. According to a European source, this would represent a comprehensive effort to recapitalize "107 or 108 billion euros."The scenario always favors a priority call to the private sector and the public opening of windows and finally, in case of failure the use of a solution through the EFSF.

On French banks, Baroin reiterated on Monday that Europe 1 "may not need to open this window public" and that they would carry out this recapitalization "at the expense of dividends and bonuses" . Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France, for his part spoke of a limited effort at "least ten billion euros."

Strengthening the EFSF

It is unclear exactly how the European financial stability but we know it will not be converted into bank, as called Paris. Berlin vetoed because it would require the fund to refinance with the ECB, that "treaties do not allow," said Chancellor Angela Merkel.Options to leverage the capacity of intervention of EFSF without increasing resources have been reduced to two. First possibility: make a guarantee fund for the obligations of troubled countries (Greece, Italy and Spain) that protects owners up to 20 to 30% of the loan amount. This insurance should put downward pressure on interest rates. Second option on the table: create a special fund to accept contributions from outside investors, and could be backed by the IMF. But as the EU president, Herman Van Rompuy, both options could ultimately be chosen. "Combined, these two models could have a cumulative effect," he said Sunday.

The new problems that emerge

The non-European contribution to EFSF

The proposed involvement of outside investors – outside the euro area – raises some reservations.The fear of other states to mix with European desnquiétudes rise. "The Chinese said they were interested, but some member states are skeptical about the idea of ​​integrating a Chinese contribution to the EFSF," said one diplomat. Which could ultimately leave the field open to the German proposal as EFSF Guarantee Fund.

The payment of the IMF to Greece

To avoid suffocation in the country, the creditors of Athens must pay the sixth installment of the loan of 110 billion euros. But if Europe accepted Friday the payment of its share (5.8 billion), the IMF still has not cleared the release of funds. The Secretary General of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, said Friday she would recommend the Fund to pay the remaining share (2.2 billion).But for this it will be another meeting of the Board of the IMF in November …

The use of Italy EFSF

Italy is under pressure to further reduce its debt and deficits. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was ordered to reach the European summit Wednesday with a detailed road map for further reforms of its economy, particularly on pensions. "This is not to appeal to the solidarity of partners if we do not effort," even said Nicolas Sarkozy. Now Italy has indeed need that help. She is a candidate to benefit from new support program called "precautionary" developed in July. The tool is expected to be able to provide credit lines or to allow the EFSF to buy government debt from one country to investors in the market "secondary" to influence interest rates.Relief Fund would replace the ECB and redeeming debt from the Italian August but warned that it would not do it forever. Except that Europe now poses its terms. Silvio Berlusconi has already given some pledges by suggesting that it might raise the retirement age to 67. It could also speed up privatization to relieve the huge debt the country to 1,900 billion euros.

The Irish budget deficit has reduced by 4 percentage points of GDP since 2009. Corporate profitability recovered sharply. But deleveraging too fast may influence the activity against becoming productive. Pedestrians in Dublin

If Ireland is still part of PIGS, it can not be in the same category as Greece or Portugal, as progress in a few months by former Tiger European are important. The Irish budget deficit – excluding bank recapitalization needs – fell by 4 percentage points of GDP since 2009. The current account deficit turned into a small surplus. Finally, corporate profitability recovered sharply.

The experts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of the European Central Bank (ECB) and European Commission, who have just completed their assessment mission in Ireland, are seduced. "The ongoing adjustment is solid.The 2011 budget targets will be achieved and the ongoing structural reforms will also contribute to sanitation, "they note in their report.

However, Ireland is now entering a delicate phase. Or the risk of too rapid deleveraging weigh on activity, against becoming productive. The experts of the IMF, the ECB and the Commission to admit the hint. "Ireland will have to find a balance between the imperatives of debt reduction and limitation of the barriers to growth and job creation," they point out in their report. This sentence harmless and a bit blurry could announce a change in strategy for Ireland. The country needs it, says a recent report by Goodbody Broker.

Make concessions

Indeed, in Ireland, over-indebtedness affects both the public sector, private sector and banks.Simultaneously reducing the three is clearly a bad idea, says the report. If Ireland is determined to meet all objectives at the same time, the evolving recovery will be quickly suppressed. A risk highlighted recently by the Finance Minister Michael Noonan. Especially since the motor only turns in exports. The domestic market remains depressed by lower prices (unit labor costs fell by 15% and commercial property prices have been divided by two).

We must therefore make concessions to one side. But which one? As for households, the government can not do much. The debt reached 220% of disposable income, nearly twice the international average. And fall of financial markets could reduce household net wealth of 250 billion euros. The Irish are going to have to tighten their belts for several years.Make concessions on the public debt is also not in a financial crisis. Ireland recorded a primary deficit of 6% of GDP in 2011. This is the worst result of the euro area.

Remaining banks. They must bring their ratios to 122% loan to deposit by 2013. The challenge today is to allow banks to achieve that clean without excessively penalizing the credit. This will doubtless involve additional time but also further aid from the ECB, economists now believe. Lengthy discussion in perspective.

On the eve of crucial European summit must agree on strengthening the EFSF, rumors are going well. The scenario of the report shook the stock markets. The trading floor in Frankfurt

According to information from the daily Die Welt, Germany could request that the date of the scheduled EU summit be postponed Sunday. Significant differences remain in effect for the implementation, especially the status of the EFSF "reinforced". A European diplomat had already emphasized this point of contention with the AFP in the morning.

The silence of Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy after their meeting Wednesday Express is not a good sign according to some analysts.

The summit, originally scheduled October 17, has already been postponed once.But several senior sources directly involved in the preparation and organization of the EU summit on Sunday, said on Thursday told Reuters not be aware of any proposed postponement of the meeting.

Another fear of the markets, they are trying to learn more about a paper on the EFSF, obtained by news agencies and that the European fund would be used as a last resort to recapitalize banks after the stress shareholders, private investors and governments.

Markets nervous

In this waiting period, nervousness is being felt in markets. Losses CAC40 who had reduced to just 0.5% to double and even more since the French values ​​now fall -1.35% to 15h.

European markets were down -1.1% on average (such as Madrid and Milan), but Frankfurt falls of -1.5%.

The Belgian, French and Luxembourg governments reaffirmed at the end of a meeting held in Brussels this Sunday afternoon in solidarity in the search for a solution that ensures the future of Franco-Belgian bank Dexia.

In a statement released by the office of Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme, they say, give their full support to the proposals of management of the banking group, which will be presented at a Board of Directors scheduled at 15:00 in Brussels.

"The proposed solution, which is also the result of intense consultations with all relevant partners, will be presented to the Board of Directors of Dexia which is responsible for approving the proposals," said Yves Leterme.

The activities of the Franco-Belgian bank, first bank in size in Europe to be a victim of the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro zone could be split and the most risky assets confined to a separate structure.

For André-Yves Portnoff, prospective and strategy consultant, Director of the Observatory of the Revolution of the mind (Futuribles Group International), it is finally time to help SMEs to boost growth. Will be right at the end of Europe?

Yes, because the "baseline scenario" is always catastrophic. If nothing is done, Europe will accelerate its decline, with many catastrophic scenarios that may occur locally at the same time. Scenario brown, xenophobic governments, more or less fascist, with here and there an alternative left-wing populist. Black scenario, governments taken over by organized crime, mafia Italian and Slavic holding hands. Italy shows a partial combination of the two scenarios, all involving a collapse and worsening the economic strength and quality of life of Europe.And the Italian example shows that corruption is too expensive in a recession.

What is the economic model of a virtuous Europe?

A virtuous Europe rependrait confidence in its strengths, culture and a level of unparalleled quality, with a message but not ego-centered universal, that of humanism, of human rights, real democracy, not just formal. We argue in to action, citizens! for a Europe of the Enlightenment able to support Indignant over the world, offer them to overcome the rebellion and build together. This Europe would value its culture tolerant, secular, united, ingredients necessary for creativity, innovation, therefore, as history confirms Alexandria since the fall of the USSR. Europe is setting an ambitious industrial targets and strategy development.Far from closing on itself, it nouerait the necessary alliances in the world. It could, for example, rely on the last European champion Telecom, Nokia, Linux, free software also European in the beginning, the school computer teacher's Negroponte to start equipping our schools a European network computing Free. Instead, it subsidizes Microsoft and Google are bought shelves for our students. We think small!

Innovation, the salvation of the industrial countries?

The choice is simple: either maximize immediate profits of a few, as is the hold-up neo-liberal, and too bad if we destroyed the business and desertification territories. It removes grease staff is relocating, employees are demoralized, whatever is more than innovating.Thus, the industries of radio, TV Americans died, and Hewlett Packard, No. 1 worldwide PC just follow suit, he will abandon the PC, 32% of its turnover, 42 billion of revenue.

Either you bet on the future as many companies continued success we describe in action. Investing in people, loyalty is a friendly management's personal loyalty in turn clients. It stimulates creativity by listening and recognition. We innovate in products, services, processes, organization, partnership, it is different to escape the deadly competition on cost. And it does not seek to maximize immediate profits by killing the goose that lays golden eggs. Production, distribution must remain physically close to the essence of design and innovation, offshoring does not warrant that to get closer to markets.Repeat that innovation is not technical and can find its source at all levels. The company Favi thirty years of productivity gains three points thanks to innovations from its workers …

Why in France for decades no longer creates enough growth?

We know that large groups are destroying jobs, it is entirely generated by SMEs. France and Europe, the fabric of large companies is not renewed. Large innovate less and less but prevent the growth of young champions, particularly in France, less so in Germany. Collusion among elites out of the same schools, electioneering and mental models are the bulk of state aid going to a few large groups.The situation has not improved since that July 1987, a report by the Ministry of Industry drew up an alarming picture of the French situation: "Our exports of high technology are insufficient. France is the only major OECD countries whose exports are dominated by sales of products with low technological intensity. The state aid is concentrated on a few sectors and companies. Large companies are the main beneficiaries of aid: 73 companies received 71% of total aid, more than their weight in the number of researchers (46%) or the volume of R & D (52% ). "

We must break with the "Republic of Buddies" or accept a costly meltdown. We know the solutions, we must stop talking and act effectively.The shock of the crisis and the pre-election period are favorable policies to require that they become serious, they simplify and focus the procedures, they open de facto or de jure public procurement for innovative SMEs by creating a affirmative, the first step towards the proliferation of French and European ETI and the formation of French and European world leaders, especially in high-tech sectors, high-growth, all that is the daily life of tomorrow in a massively interconnected .

UBS has relieved the market by announcing Tuesday that it still anticipates a modest net profit for its third quarter despite the loss of $ 2.3 billion due to unauthorized transactions a dishonest broker in London.

This estimate includes the cost of 400 million francs (329 million) in restructuring charges, said in a statement the number one bank in Switzerland.

UBS had announced in late August that it intended to eliminate almost 3,500 jobs to save about two billion francs by the end of 2013.

Net new money from wealth management activities should be comparable to the second quarter, the bank added.It recognizes that fraud will impact slightly the BIS tier 1 ratio, but qualifies its position as capital of "solid".

The action of UBS sells 0.99% to 9.99 francs at 10:42, while the Swiss blue chip index lost 1.39% and the index of European bank leaves 3.25%.

UBS was able to register gains on own credit related financial commitments at fair value at 1.5 billion francs.These contributions are "essentially attributable to widening credit spreads during the third quarter," said the establishment.

In addition, the bank recorded a gain on the sale of treasury investments of close to 700 million francs in Swiss Bank & Wealth Management.

Between April and June inflows into the wealth management had reached 5.6 billion, down by half compared to 11.1 billion in the first quarter.

UBS said Tuesday that the estimates had been made at an early stage of the procedure for closing the accounts.The bank, which will release its third quarter results on Oct. 25, said no new update was expected before then.

"Finally a nice surprise after a flood of negative news", analysts said the bank Wegelin in their fax in the morning.But they also believe that the bank will roll up their sleeves to restore confidence.

Sabine Bohn, an analyst at DZ Bank, agrees: "We appreciate that the net inflows are similar to those in the second quarter but we remain cautious, because the loss due to fraud and the resignation of CEO Oswald Grübel resulted in a big loss of confidence. "

Dirk Becker at Kepler Capital Markets, is more cautious: "It is too early to become positive to UBS, while resizing the investment bank will certainly create friction and unforeseen problems."

Yves Saint Laurent (PPR) has made a firm denial Monday to rumors of his replacement designer Stefano Pilati.

"Yves Saint Laurent denies and considers unsubstantiated rumors about the current direction of the creation of the house.Stefano Pilati continues to dedicate his talent and energy to Yves Saint Laurent and the parade to come, "the fashion house said in a statement.

In an article on fashion ready-to-wear in Milan, the Herald Tribune Monday spoke of the arrival of Raf Simons, current artistic director of Jil Sander, the head of the establishment of the French label.

Rumors continue to go well on the eve of Paris Fashion Week ready-to-wear spring-summer 2012.

Marc Jacobs (Louis Vuitton, LVMH) seems expected to succeed John Galliano at Dior, which has so far not confirmed.

While European politicians opposing the idea of ​​issuing Eurobonds to respond to the crisis of sovereign debt, China could affect their development.

Europe is the first export market of China, which has clearly said he was in his interest to avoid a financial collapse that could cause a global recession.

China also wants to diversify its foreign reserves to reduce the share of U.S. government bonds, and did not wait for the deterioration in the sovereign rating of the United States last month to start doing.

"European countries are facing problems of sovereign debt.We have said countless times that China wants to give a hand and we will continue to invest (in Europe), "said Premier Wen Jiabao during the 'Summer Davos Forum' week last in the Chinese city of Dalian.

But he also said that the major developed economies were healthier fiscal position and urged Europe to make a reciprocal gesture by granting China the status of market economy.

Europeans have so far been reluctant to make this concession, given the exchange rate regime of the yuan, state control of Chinese industry and commercial litigation, intellectual property, for example.

Upon entry to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, China agreed to a covenant which provided that she would not have the status of market economy in the world before 2016.Beijing has long called for this status to be granted in advance, as that would provide better protection against anti-dumping duties including the EU.

"A crisis is an opportunity"

"Europeans have not been sufficiently sensitive to the needs of China," said Etienne Reuter, a consultant who was representing the EU in Hong Kong and Japan.

China also wants the EU to lift an arms embargo imposed in 1989 after the crushing of the "Beijing Spring".

Privately, EU officials who manage the debt crisis remember that China is one of the few large foreign investors continue to buy bonds of countries in the euro area in the secondary market.

China thinks it also has also taken a large share of bonds rated triple-A issued by the European Financial Stability (EFSF) to support Greece, Ireland and Portugal as part of programs helps set up by the EU and the International Monetary Fund.

For Beijing, the problem is rather that there is not enough paper issues rated triple A European response to the request.Yields on German government bonds and UK safe haven to which have turned many investors are thus fell below the rate of inflation.

"It is in the interest of China that the euro area is stable with the creation of Euro-bonds, but China may have an impact on the decision of the European countries I doubt," said however Xu Bei, a Chinese economist who works in Paris for the French bank Natixis investment.

"In the Chinese mentality, a crisis is always an opportunity.The Chinese word for crisis has two characters: one meaning danger, the other opportunity, "says she.

In the short term, she says, it would make sense for China to buy the Italian Treasury bonds, which are active in Europe among the more volume and more liquid while providing an attractive return "if Excluding a scenario of extreme crisis. "

SECURE INVESTMENT

There is clearly a debate within the Chinese leadership on the pros and cons of going to the assistance of Europe.

Forum in Dalian last week, an adviser to the Chinese central bank, Daokui Li said that China should refrain from buying large volumes of European bonds.

In its edition for abroad, the People's Daily, for its part says that China should not act alone but work with other creditors, including the IMF, and ask that the euro area investment guarantees.

"Faced with latent systemic risk for European debt, China should both take the role of responsible great power but must also make security a prerequisite for an investment," said an editorial in Xiangyang Li, researcher international relations at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

According to Etienne Reuter, Wen Jiabao wants to open China further and support the conservative voice of Europe, but among the other leaders argue that Beijing must be careful not to get too involved in other countries.

Chinese public opinion, at least as reflected by the blogs on the internet, look for caution on the issue of investment in Europe is for its part Bei Xu.

As for David Bowers, the financial advisory firm Absolute Strategy Research, the Committee is unlikely that China will take strategic initiatives to scale before the change of the management team in 2012, which should be reflected in particular by replacing Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao.

"The people that the Chinese are dealing, it is the Germans.Triple A is a nation like China, mercantile like China, and the Chinese could help them avoid making the taxpayers bear the German "a heavy burden, he said.

China is becoming the next two years the largest trading partner of Germany instead of France, noted David Bowers.

"They (the Chinese) will have to wait until Germany is clearer about what she wants in Europe," he said.