Business & Financial News

The amount of mortgage loans fell by nearly 26% over a year and nearly 50% compared to December. A real "blow". http://www.flickr.com/photos/gcattiaux/

The amount of loans granted by banks recorded a very sharp decline in January, falling 25.7% over the corresponding month of 2011, according to a study by the Housing Credit / CSA published Monday. "The year 2012 did not start very well. In a sluggish economy, the backlash movement anticipation of the end of 2011 is significant," notes the study.

On a monthly basis, the collapse is indeed brutal: -49.4% between December 2011 and January 2012 (after already falling by 34.1% between December 2010 and January 2011). "It's a blow. The fall is comparable to 2009, when the subprime crisis + + U.S., "said Michel Mouillart for AFP, professor of economics at the University of Paris West and industry expert

. For Mr.

Mouillart two decisions specific to the sector in addition to "concerns about rising unemployment, purchasing power and the unfavorable economic outlook". "First of all the strong decrease in the rate (from 22% to 13%) of the tax benefit for investors buying a new home and, in addition, the removal of zero-interest loan (PTZ) for buyers of older homes, "said M . Mouillart

. For the full year 2012, loans granted banks should amount to only 130 billion euros, a drop of almost 20% compared to 2011 (160 billion), far from the high of 2007 (170.2 billion), said Mr. Mouillart. The reversal came after an explosion of these funds since the beginning of the century who had contributed to buoyant property market in France: 70.8 billion in 2001, 87.3 in 2003, 143.7 in 2005 and 170, 2 in 2007.

Interest rates on mortgages continued to rise in January 2012 and have averaged 3.97% against 3.94% in December 2011 and 3.86% in November, a jump of more than 70 points base compared to the lowest level since 1945 (3.25% on average) reached in November 2010, according to Credit Housing.

Sales were flat compared to last year and prospects by the end of the operation on February 14 are bad. Winter sales, January 2010

Sales of the first half of the winter sales are stable, but the figures hide wide disparities in the types of stores, and prospects by the end of the transaction on Feb. 14 are "brittle" in the context of crisis. The French Fashion Institute (IFM), which refers, on Tuesday released the figures of the first two weeks of sales, traditionally the most active of the operation, lasting five weeks. On average, "it is not extraordinary, but it's not a disaster," said Gildas Minvielle, head of the Economic Observatory of the IFM, recalling that in 2011, the first half had balances resulted in sales between 0 and 1%.

For circuits, the figures are still "quite mixed," with a "bonus" to some shops downtown, he notes. Stores called "popular" category which essentially network Monoprix, sign the best performance with sales up 10% to 15%. Department stores, hypermarkets and supermarkets other retailers and mass market chains (which sell both clothing man, woman and child and are often on the periphery or Kiabi as La Halle) show an increase between 0 and 5%. But sales of independent multi-brand and specialty channels (type H & M, Zara …) fell between -5% and 0%. "The outlook for the remaining weeks of sales are weak" and 48% of Distributors expect a negative activity, says the IFM.

For their part, traders are more or less satisfied with the first two weeks of sales. – "Balance not good for the moment." Malls display an attendance close to last year (+0.3%), while revenue rose "in the order of 1 or 2%," according to Jean-Marie Silberstein, managing director of National Council of Shopping Centers (CNCC). "The purchases cheap work well in times of crisis, the consumer is on the lookout for bargains," said he. Side e-commerce, the sector federation announced for the first week sales jumped 14% (18% for sites mainly textiles).  

"Some of us are happy, others less," said Bertrand Morvan for his part, Chairman of the National Federation of clothing (FNH, independent). "We do not necessarily sold large pieces, perhaps does one sell from now with the cold snap. I think it will not be such a bad thought it," he predicts. "Cool weather will surely boost some sales, especially large pieces," added Jean-Marc Genis, president of the Federation of brands of clothing (FEH), which unites the chain, whose sales fell to about 2% over the first half. Francois-Marie for Grau, chief representative of the French Federation of ready-to-wear, "the record is not good for now".

Involved "essentially the problem of purchasing power experienced by consumers." Evidenced by sales of low end, suffer the most, is he. He also cited "the climate problem", with a cold came late, and the rise to power of "floating sales, promotions, private sales, and prices crossed on the internet." The Secretary of State for Trade Frederic Lefebvre said Monday in As part of the event Passion Commerce's decision to entrust a mission Crédoc on the issue of balances, balances floating, promotions, sales and private sales, said its services. This is to take stock, three years after the Act of modernizing the economy (LME), which governs the system of sales and promotions, and to determine whether changes are needed.

EDF shares fell more than 5% Friday afternoon in Paris Stock Exchange, market participants have cited an article in Le Monde that the Socialist Party and environmentalists are about to sign an agreement providing for election closures nuclear power plants.

Interviewed by Reuters, the two sides, however, said no such thing had been decided yet and that negotiations for the presidential and legislative elections of 2012 in France continued.

The electrician public asked the Financial Markets Authority (AMF) to investigate the collapse of the course.

"Discussions are at this stage, more general," he told Reuters Michel Sapin, former economy minister, Francois Hollande close and involved in these negotiations.

As for Yannick Jadot, spokesman Eva Joly, candidate of Europe Ecologie-Greens, he felt that the article in Le Monde shows a vision "a little fictionalized" reality.

"Should there be an agreement between the two, Fessenheim shut fairly quickly.(…) We are still at an output of nuclear power including actual closing fast enough for the older plants, "he said.

He hoped that negotiations with the Socialist Party end up in the next 15 days.

François Hollande, Socialist candidate for president, wants a drop from 75% to 50% of the share of nuclear in electricity generation.

The central Fessenheim is the oldest in France and has two reactors of 900 megawatts each.

Last summer, the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) found that the No. 1 reactor of the plant was capable of being operated ten years older.

A new week promises to be tense on Wall Street, where investors are worried about a possible erosion of corporate earnings against the backdrop of the debt crisis in Europe and slowing Chinese economy.

The U.S. stock markets fell more than 2% Friday, signing the third quarter of their worst quarterly performance in three years, and some fear that the benefits of big names backed out because the rating is supported by foreign demand.

Past two years, export sales have averaged 30% of the turnover of listed companies in the S & P 500, allowing the results of many of them to exceed the expectations of analysts.

"If the euro falls, it will have a huge negative impact on companies like McDonald's," Judge Todd Schoenberger, LandColt of Trading.

"I do not expect quarterly results very fast", he adds. The ball must begin quarterly publication October 11 with Alcoa.

In addition, many U.S. multinationals have benefited in recent months the relative weakness of the dollar to support exports.But the euro shows a quarterly decline of more than 7% against the greenback, depriving companies of the damper.

Last major undertaking as to have lowered its profit forecast, Ingersoll-Rand fell by over 12% on Wall Street Friday after the announcement.

Of surprises anyway?

While the S & P 500 fell 14.3% in the third quarter, 1,700 billion in value gone up in smoke, a period of disappointing results could accentuate this downtrend, analysts said.

Most of them have lowered their expectations of results.According to Thomson Reuters data, earnings for the third quarter are expected up 13.3% over the same period of 2010, against an expected increase to 17% in early July.

In this context, investors will closely monitor the economic indicators to try to learn more about the state of U.S. growth.

The employment figures, released Friday, will be eagerly awaited, as well as the ISM index of purchasing managers in manufacturing (Monday) and services (Wednesday).

Still, some strategists believe to possible surprises on the forehead of the results, as Natalie Trunow, Calvert Investment Management.

"U.S. multinationals do not necessarily derive all their additional benefits (European market), and China, the statistics point to a slowdown but not a hard landing," said she.

Others point out that the drastic austerity measures that large firms have emerged after the 2008 financial crisis will maintain their accounts afloat.

"From our perspective, U.S. companies have learned to make a profit in this context (difficult)," wants to believe Hank Smith, chief investment officer at Haverford Trust.

Moody's Investors Service downgraded Wednesday Societe Generale and Credit Agricole up a notch, and extended monitoring of BNP Paribas, adding that any downgrading of the rating on BNP would probably also limited to one notch.

The rating agency had placed the banks under review with negative implications on June 15, citing their exposure to Greece.

Experts had said that the notes were ripe for a downgrade due to higher borrowing costs in the context of sovereign debt crisis of several of the euro area.

In a context of deterioration of refinancing, Moody's said its concerns about the structural difficulties of the profiles of liquidity and financing banks had intensified.

For Credit Agricole, Moody's reduced the rating of the long-term debt and deposits to Aa2 from Aa1, a one notch downgrade and downgraded the Bank Financial Strength Rating (BFSR) to the next level too, C + to C.

Regarding Societe Generale, Moody's Aa2 to Aa3 reduced from the note of the long-term debt and deposits, with a negative outlook.The agency estimates that the impact of monitoring the Bank Financial Strength Rating (BFSR) will be limited to a one notch downgrade.

Moody's believes, however, that Societe Generale has a level of capital sufficient to absorb potential losses it is likely to record its holdings on Greek government bonds.

It added that Societe Generale will remain capitalized at a level consistent with its BFSR, even if the quality of the signature of the Ireland and Portugal were to deteriorate further.

Societe Generale issued a statement following the announcement by Moody's.The bank says it has demonstrated its ability to effectively manage the current situation in the debt crisis in Greece and has taken appropriate measures to strengthen its profile of refinancing.

Societe Generale said Monday it would conduct asset sales and cost reductions designed to release four billion euros in additional capital by 2013.

FRENCH BANKS "KEEP NOTES OF VERY GOOD"

For BNP Paribas, Moody's believes that the first French bank has a level of profitability and capital sufficient to absorb potential losses it may suffer over time due to its exposure to Greece, Portugal and the Ireland.

Moody's continues its review with negative implications for long-term rating and deposits – currently Aa2 – BNP Paribas, but considered unlikely that this under surveillance results in a downgrade of more than one notch.

BNP Paribas said Wednesday it would reduce the size of its balance sheet of about 10% by the end of 2012 and expects to achieve a capital adequacy ratio of 9% under the new banking regulations of Basel III on 1 January 2013.

Following the announcements by Moody's, the French government has reaffirmed the "strong" French banks.

"French banks have withstood stress tests that were very demanding few weeks ago," said Valerie Pécresse, budget minister and spokesman of the government after the cabinet meeting.

"There is no funding problem, or issue credit or liquidity problem for French banks," she said.

French banks are "very strong and keep very good notes," she said.

Radio Europe 1, President of the Financial Markets Authority (AMF) Jean-Pierre Jouyet noted that the cuts of note occurred already anticipated by the market.

On RTL, the governor of the Banque de France Christian Noyer, for its part felt that the situation of French banks was unlikely to deteriorate further after the decision by Moody's.

At the Paris stock exchange, securities of the three banks have opened down sharply after the announcements by Moody's, but have rapidly reduced or erased their losses, with the overall market, thanks to remarks by the President of the European Commission suggesting a forthcoming proposal for the introduction of euro bonds.

French banks are the institutions most exposed to Greece, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

Earlier this afternoon, the action Societe Generale lost 2.8% and 1.6% gave the BNP.But Crédit Agricole clinching 2%.

Citigroup cut its price targets on French banks.

Honda is recalling about 960,000 vehicles, including urban Fit, to remedy defects in the system of opening and closing windows, the group announced Monday.

No accidents were caused by these problems, said a spokesman in Tokyo.

In Japan, the recall involves Honda Fit occurred between October 2005 and October 2009. This model was also marketed in China and other Asian countries.

The group did not reveal the cost of this operation.

"The average growth in employment over the last four months was less than during the first four months of the year," the ministry.

President Barack Obama must address the Congress on September 8 to present a new government plan to stimulate hiring and boost economic growth, which has stalled since the beginning of the year. According to ministry figures, the only two industries that have actually hired in August, are the business services (28,000 net new jobs) and education and health care (34,000 balance).

Measured in the broad sense, that is to say, by incorporating the so-called discouraged unemployed, a number of other excluded from the official count, and people forced to work part time if you can find a full time job The unemployment rate in the United States rose again by 0.1 points in August, reaching 16.2%

Department figures are bleak in terms of changes in income Americans: the average hourly earnings fell slightly in August compared to July, and over one year's increase is only 1.9 % while inflation was 3.6% over the same period.

Global stock markets dive back Thursday after several sessions of relative calm, rising fears of a global economic relapse accentuating aversion to risky assets and the "flight to quality".

In this context, also marked by the sovereign debt crisis, the safe havens like government bonds offer the best signature (U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds) or gold, multiply the record as is a succession of bad news .

"It puts money under the mattress.It no longer seeks the return but the absolute safety record even if out of stock losses, "said Alexandre Baradez, market analyst at Saxo Bank.

In Europe, the European stock markets saw another black day and extremely volatile, Morgan Stanley has set fire to the powder at the beginning of the session after reducing its forecast for global growth for 2011 and 2012, and fears about the liquidity of banks had increased.

In a note, the U.S. investment bank now expects growth in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 3.9% in 2011, against 4.2% previously and 3.8% in 2012, instead of 4 5%.

Sealed by the values ​​of automobiles (-7.4%), the construction sector (-7.1%) and banks (-6.7%), the CAC 40 index finished in fall of 5.5% EuroStoxx 50 and has dropped 5.3%.Implied volatility index jumped pan 34.6%.

ON THE BUBBLE OR

In New York, the S & P 500 drops 4% to 6:45 p.m. ET the CBOE volatility index, also known as the "fear index", is up 29%.

The president of the New York Fed had to ensure that the Federal Reserve deal the same way the U.S. and European banks after a Wall Street Journal who raised an intensified investigation of the Fed on the subsidiaries of European banks to the States United for fear of a contagion of debt.

"We will find asset classes with security even if they do not report anything like gold, which explains the records recorded regularly by the metal end," said Alexandre Baradez, referring to the new record registered by the Gold 1825.99 dollars an ounce.

Valerie Gastaldy, an analyst at Day By Day graphics, warned in a note that a bubble is also trying to form on gold.

"Gold is the star of the summer, with new regular summits and soon the psychological threshold of $ 2,000" an ounce, said she. "We note an acceleration of the uptrend and into bubble.The objective of the current movement is between 2,060 and 2,080 dollars, "

In turn, the futures contract on the German Bund to 10 years, part of the euro zone, reached a record high at 136.26, or 211 basis points more than the end of the day, after announcement of an index of business conditions from the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia fell to its lowest level since March 2009.

Similarly, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose for the first time below the threshold of 2% to 1.976%, before rising to 2.09%.

Down time due to possible liquidity injections from the Swiss National Bank raised by traders, the Swiss franc, seen as another safe haven, now earns 0.6% against the euro at 1.1318 francs to one euro. The euro has evolved in a range between 1.1241 and 1.1510 francs.

Hitachi and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has started negotiations for a merger, it was learned Thursday from three sources familiar with the discussions.

The negotiations, which have not been officially confirmed despite press leaks, cover a reconciliation of the two industrial activities in the field of energy generation and development of power systems "intelligent" ("smart grids") , the sources said.

Mergers are often seen in Japan as a last resort for firms in difficulty, but analysts point out that a strategic combination would enable Hitachi and Mitsubishi to achieve economies of scale to overcome the strong yen and win competitiveness.

"If the merger is confirmed, it would be very positive news for the Japanese industry, because companies would not get competition in the conquest of foreign capital projects, which would increase their chances while supporting the economy countries, "said Kiyoshi Noda, a fund manager at MU Investments.

Hitachi, the leading Japanese electronics industry but also a player in nuclear energy, posted its first net profit in five years on the year ended in March, after losing about $ 14.3 billion (9 , 99 billion euros) over the past ten years.

For its part, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, a supplier of power plants and aerospace equipment from Boeing including Areva and continues to incur losses on its shipbuilding activities and aviation.

A merger of two industrial conglomerates would create the second largest player in the heavy equipment behind General Electric, with a turnover of about $ 150 billion.

Thursday at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Hitachi ended up 1.73%, while Mitsubishi Heavy jumped 3.44%.

Wall Street opened with sharp rebound Monday, boosted by the announcement of an agreement in extremis on raising the U.S. debt ceiling.

In early trade, the Dow Jones advanced 1.06% (130.99 points) to 12,274.02 points.The S & P 500, larger, gained 1.13% (14.85 points) to 1307.13 points while the Nasdaq composite market clinching 1.37% (37.80 points) to 2794.10 points.

Barack Obama announced late Sunday night that the Democratic and Republican leaders had reached a compromise, ruling out the risk that the world's largest economy in default of payment.

The agreement, which must be submitted to a vote of both houses of Congress on Monday, came after the U.S. stocks last week recorded its worst weekly performance in 2011, weighed down by fears of a deadlock in negotiations.

"The agreement is obviously useful in view of the government's ability to pay its debts, and this leads to a relief rally," Judge Wayne Kaufman, John Thomas Financial Analyst in New York, which estimates that the market fell excessively lately.

Despite this last-minute agreement, concerns remain about a possible lowering of the sovereign rating of the United States, as well as the debt crisis in Europe, and some analysts warn that the rebound on Wall Street could be short-lived.

Values, Ford and Amazon advanced 4.0% and 1.4% on positive recommendations from the review of Barron's.