Aug 18 2011
Markets dive back, the surge in risk aversion
Global stock markets dive back Thursday after several sessions of relative calm, rising fears of a global economic relapse accentuating aversion to risky assets and the "flight to quality".
In this context, also marked by the sovereign debt crisis, the safe havens like government bonds offer the best signature (U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds) or gold, multiply the record as is a succession of bad news .
"It puts money under the mattress.It no longer seeks the return but the absolute safety record even if out of stock losses, "said Alexandre Baradez, market analyst at Saxo Bank.
In Europe, the European stock markets saw another black day and extremely volatile, Morgan Stanley has set fire to the powder at the beginning of the session after reducing its forecast for global growth for 2011 and 2012, and fears about the liquidity of banks had increased.
In a note, the U.S. investment bank now expects growth in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 3.9% in 2011, against 4.2% previously and 3.8% in 2012, instead of 4 5%.
Sealed by the values of automobiles (-7.4%), the construction sector (-7.1%) and banks (-6.7%), the CAC 40 index finished in fall of 5.5% EuroStoxx 50 and has dropped 5.3%.Implied volatility index jumped pan 34.6%.
ON THE BUBBLE OR
In New York, the S & P 500 drops 4% to 6:45 p.m. ET the CBOE volatility index, also known as the "fear index", is up 29%.
The president of the New York Fed had to ensure that the Federal Reserve deal the same way the U.S. and European banks after a Wall Street Journal who raised an intensified investigation of the Fed on the subsidiaries of European banks to the States United for fear of a contagion of debt.
"We will find asset classes with security even if they do not report anything like gold, which explains the records recorded regularly by the metal end," said Alexandre Baradez, referring to the new record registered by the Gold 1825.99 dollars an ounce.
Valerie Gastaldy, an analyst at Day By Day graphics, warned in a note that a bubble is also trying to form on gold.
"Gold is the star of the summer, with new regular summits and soon the psychological threshold of $ 2,000" an ounce, said she. "We note an acceleration of the uptrend and into bubble.The objective of the current movement is between 2,060 and 2,080 dollars, "
In turn, the futures contract on the German Bund to 10 years, part of the euro zone, reached a record high at 136.26, or 211 basis points more than the end of the day, after announcement of an index of business conditions from the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia fell to its lowest level since March 2009.
Similarly, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose for the first time below the threshold of 2% to 1.976%, before rising to 2.09%.
Down time due to possible liquidity injections from the Swiss National Bank raised by traders, the Swiss franc, seen as another safe haven, now earns 0.6% against the euro at 1.1318 francs to one euro. The euro has evolved in a range between 1.1241 and 1.1510 francs.
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